In my four years of publishing this blog, I have never (and likely never to again) had an opportunity to comment on a breeding session. But with back to back Horse of the Year mares going to the mattresses in such a highly publicized week, I must jump on this opportunity...
Zenyatta, the electrifying 2010 Horse of the Year, was bred on Wednesday to Darley stallion Bernardini, son of master sire A.P. Indy. She was the second top racemare to be mated in the Bluegrass state this week. The full-figured mare owned by Jerry and Ann Moss was picked up by a horse van (where she was served champagne and chocolate covered peppermints) from William S. Farish's Lane’s End Farm at about 7:30 a.m. (EST) for the 10-minute trip to Darley Farm near Lexington. The feisty Zenyatta requested that Ke$ha’s “Animal” be played during the breeding session. Unfortunately for her, the mating lasted much shorter than the van ride, as Bernardini had four other “dates” planned for later that day. At $75,000 a pop, he is thought to be the highest paid male escort since Kato Kaelin. According to the Zenyatta website, "It went very well. In horse terms, it was ‘one jump...and a very good cover’... meaning that everything went perfectly in our first meeting," said the website post, written as if told by Zenyatta. Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61524/horse-of-the-year-zenyatta-bred-to-bernardini#ixzz1EzU94wnP
Elsewhere in Kentucky, two horses previously crowned Horse of the Year were bred on Feb. 21st when the 2009 superstar Rachel Alexandra was mated with stallion Curlin. The mating took place at 9 a.m. (EST) at William S. Farish's Lane’s End Farm near Versailles, Ky. Onlookers in the breeding shed reported that Curlin requested the soothing tones of Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On” as Rachel entered the room, fitted with a pink negligee blanket and ribbons in her mane. Rachel then closed the curtain and much nickering ensued over the following 15 minutes, at which point the cigarette smoke indicated the session was over. “It was just a very routine visit,” said Farish. “She accepted him and he her. We are very excited to have her and, of course, Zenyatta, who could be bred within the next week.”
So now the competition turns to who can drop a healthy foal the fastest -- stay tuned!
February 25, 2011
February 22, 2011
Derby Top 10 update - Feb. 22
First of all, I must say that I had a pretty crappy weekend all around. I drove to Hot Springs for a relaxing three day weekend to witness the Southwest Stakes and get my first live taste of Derby fever 2011. By late afternoon Monday, I had cashed nary a ticket ("0 for Oaklawn" as my friends put it), three of my original top 10 picks failed to threaten in their respective races, and to top it all off one of my two Derby futures bets had already been declared off the trail due to injury! Luckily, I made it back to Dallas okay and I'm ready to lick my wounds and re-group, since the next prep race could be the one that makes me forget about all these trivial concerns.
I will be tossing Tapizar (extremely poor showing after being headstrong early in race and injured in process) and Elite Alex (decent performance for show spot, but appeared to be a weak race and slow closing fractions). I would like to give Machen one more chance at redemption due to his wide trip in the Risen Star, but I have another maiden winner that may make some noise in his next race at a nice price, so here goes...
1) Dialed In – The impressive LaPenta/Zito winner of the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park may now skip the FOY Stakes on Feb. 26th at Gulfstream for a later race. Their thinking is that he may be sitting on a “bounce” race after his huge effort and looking for more time and an easier spot. I see a risk that a very talented colt may NOT be making the Derby field due to a shortage of graded stakes earnings based on these conservative prep race patterns, although likely not an issue for Dialed In.
2) To Honor and Serve – His Aqueduct graded stakes scores from the fall are holding up form as Mucho Macho Man came back to take the Risen Star last weekend. This 575K yearling purchase by Campbell soup heiress Charlotte Weber is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini. And the fact that Bill Mott (of Cigar, Drosselmeyer) instructs this colt gives me additional confidence. Could be short odds in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
3) Uncle Mo – Already getting tired of the hype – especially from owner Mike Repole, who commented “Our number one goal and focus is to do what's best for Uncle Mo to have a very healthy and successful 3-year-old campaign… With the race more than two and half weeks away, hopefully this will give Mo’s fans ample time to make arrangements to watch his 3-year-old debut.” Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61500/uncle-mo-to-make-3yo-debut-at-gulfstream#ixzz1EirU8txa Actually Mike, since you’ve been saying he would run in the Tampa Bay Derby all winter, most of “Mo’s fans” will be skipping your grand unveiling in a whopping $100,000 ungraded overnight stakes! I, for one, have no intention of rebooking flights and hotels and will stick with the Tampa Bay Derby where I’ll see Brethren, since NO HORSE IS BIGGER THAN THE RACE OR SPORT, even your precious Derby hope. Does anyone else get a sense that we’ve heard these quotes before with King Jess and Rachel? And how did that work out for them??? I’m just sayin’!
4) Brethren – Another very solid horse from WinStar Farm (son of Distorted Humor and half brother to Super Saver) that has seen no competition, and will likely not be tested in the Tampa Bay Derby with Mo’s defection. But you can’t fault his breeding and professional manner of running right on cue. Certainly has the talent if he can get a stalking trip like Borel gave Super Saver last year and should bank plenty of dough until the big one.
5) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was shipped to Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. He silenced his critics about whether he could handle dirt surfaces and now has shot up most handicapper’s watch list. Seems to be in a great position with his back class and versatility for a LA Derby start -- or even better, a van ride north to Oaklawn Park where he would be much the best on the Hot Springs grounds for their $1 million prep, Arkansas Derby.
6) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Ran behind #2 last fall and seems to be improving with distance. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto (2nd place in Southwest Stakes). His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. Baffert skipped the Robert Lewis Stakes in lieu of the San Felipe on March 12th.
8) Sway Away - The lesser known son of Afleet Alex is trained on the left coast by Jeff Bonde. He showed his customarily strong closing kick when finishing a solid second in the recent 7 furlong sprint San Vicente Stakes against speed demon, The Factor. He also possesses a lovely bottom side in a 5 cross chart with Seattle Slew, Summer Squall and Mr. Prospector running through his blood. Good enough to be my new Afleet Alex horse!
9) Cal Nation – This would really be a story if he were to win The Derby since his first start was only two weeks ago, but he will have raced more times with three starts this year than most of the big guns. Yet another son of Distorted Humor who is looking to further boost the stud fee for owner WinStar Farm. Absolutely motored just off the pace in his 7 furlong maiden score at Gulfstream Park but may be shipped elsewhere since conditioned by Todd Pletcher.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Based on the connections’ conservative schedule, the FOY Stakes this weekend may be his make or break race. Also - props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name and his HUGE futures bet in recently closed pool #1 at 80-1.
Good luck with your picks for this weekend's races!
E
I will be tossing Tapizar (extremely poor showing after being headstrong early in race and injured in process) and Elite Alex (decent performance for show spot, but appeared to be a weak race and slow closing fractions). I would like to give Machen one more chance at redemption due to his wide trip in the Risen Star, but I have another maiden winner that may make some noise in his next race at a nice price, so here goes...
1) Dialed In – The impressive LaPenta/Zito winner of the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park may now skip the FOY Stakes on Feb. 26th at Gulfstream for a later race. Their thinking is that he may be sitting on a “bounce” race after his huge effort and looking for more time and an easier spot. I see a risk that a very talented colt may NOT be making the Derby field due to a shortage of graded stakes earnings based on these conservative prep race patterns, although likely not an issue for Dialed In.
2) To Honor and Serve – His Aqueduct graded stakes scores from the fall are holding up form as Mucho Macho Man came back to take the Risen Star last weekend. This 575K yearling purchase by Campbell soup heiress Charlotte Weber is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini. And the fact that Bill Mott (of Cigar, Drosselmeyer) instructs this colt gives me additional confidence. Could be short odds in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
3) Uncle Mo – Already getting tired of the hype – especially from owner Mike Repole, who commented “Our number one goal and focus is to do what's best for Uncle Mo to have a very healthy and successful 3-year-old campaign… With the race more than two and half weeks away, hopefully this will give Mo’s fans ample time to make arrangements to watch his 3-year-old debut.” Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61500/uncle-mo-to-make-3yo-debut-at-gulfstream#ixzz1EirU8txa Actually Mike, since you’ve been saying he would run in the Tampa Bay Derby all winter, most of “Mo’s fans” will be skipping your grand unveiling in a whopping $100,000 ungraded overnight stakes! I, for one, have no intention of rebooking flights and hotels and will stick with the Tampa Bay Derby where I’ll see Brethren, since NO HORSE IS BIGGER THAN THE RACE OR SPORT, even your precious Derby hope. Does anyone else get a sense that we’ve heard these quotes before with King Jess and Rachel? And how did that work out for them??? I’m just sayin’!
4) Brethren – Another very solid horse from WinStar Farm (son of Distorted Humor and half brother to Super Saver) that has seen no competition, and will likely not be tested in the Tampa Bay Derby with Mo’s defection. But you can’t fault his breeding and professional manner of running right on cue. Certainly has the talent if he can get a stalking trip like Borel gave Super Saver last year and should bank plenty of dough until the big one.
5) Santiva – The Giant's Causeway son (same as Eskenderaya last year) was shipped to Fair Grounds where he ran a huge race for 2nd place off the shelf in the Risen Star. He silenced his critics about whether he could handle dirt surfaces and now has shot up most handicapper’s watch list. Seems to be in a great position with his back class and versatility for a LA Derby start -- or even better, a van ride north to Oaklawn Park where he would be much the best on the Hot Springs grounds for their $1 million prep, Arkansas Derby.
6) Mucho Macho Man – Risen Star winner in a talented field of horses. Ran behind #2 last fall and seems to be improving with distance. Upon further look, the bottom (dam) side of his breeding has plenty of stamina with names like Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky II and Hoist The Flag. That gives this grandson of Holy Bull (who sired Giacomo - ’05 Derby winner) a nice 2.43 dosage index rating, which is picture-perfect for improving chances of winning at 10 furlongs.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto (2nd place in Southwest Stakes). His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. Baffert skipped the Robert Lewis Stakes in lieu of the San Felipe on March 12th.
8) Sway Away - The lesser known son of Afleet Alex is trained on the left coast by Jeff Bonde. He showed his customarily strong closing kick when finishing a solid second in the recent 7 furlong sprint San Vicente Stakes against speed demon, The Factor. He also possesses a lovely bottom side in a 5 cross chart with Seattle Slew, Summer Squall and Mr. Prospector running through his blood. Good enough to be my new Afleet Alex horse!
9) Cal Nation – This would really be a story if he were to win The Derby since his first start was only two weeks ago, but he will have raced more times with three starts this year than most of the big guns. Yet another son of Distorted Humor who is looking to further boost the stud fee for owner WinStar Farm. Absolutely motored just off the pace in his 7 furlong maiden score at Gulfstream Park but may be shipped elsewhere since conditioned by Todd Pletcher.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Based on the connections’ conservative schedule, the FOY Stakes this weekend may be his make or break race. Also - props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name and his HUGE futures bet in recently closed pool #1 at 80-1.
Good luck with your picks for this weekend's races!
E
February 2, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby Trail
On the heels (pun intended) of two of the greatest campaigns by a filly or mare of all-time in Rachel's 2009 and Zenyatta's 2010 season, it's time that the Derby sophomores reclaim the headlines. And there appears to be a talented enough crop to do the job in 2011 led by Uncle Mo, who has received the most amount of hype for a juvenile that I can recall since Arazi in 1992 and Favorite Trick - the Juvenile champion and overall Horse of the Year in 1997. Speaking of droughts, Lookin At Lucky broke a historic one last year when he was the only 2YO champion to repeat as 3YO champion since Spectacular Bid waaaaayyyy back in 1979!
Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).
It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
2011 Derby list #1
1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.
2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!
3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.
4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.
5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!
6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.
8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.
9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!
So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.
Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!
Happy Hunting,
E
Those of you who share my passion for handicapping potential Derby horses will notice a trend in this year's bumper crop. A strikingly high percentage of the early favorites hail from the A.P. Indy bloodline, many through sons of his such as Bernardini, Mineshaft or Pulpit. So while A.P. Indy himself had to be withdrawn on the morning of The Derby in 1992 due to an abscessed hoof, this "sire of sires" seems well armed to exorcise his Derby demons in 2011 through his progeny (speaking of demons, has anyone else seen The Rite yet?).
It is with supreme exuberance and confidence that I unveil my original Top 10 Derby list for 2011. As always, I welcome your feedback on my list, either to agree or argue some of my controversial selections. You will notice that I always avoid pure chalk, so you will surely find some nice future Derby pool bets out there with several of my selections. Also, as a reminder, I had all three triple crown winners of 2010 on my inaugural list, even though Super Saver and Drosselmeyer were relatively under the radar as of February 1st, see following comment:
2) Super Saver - My favorite bloodlines for this year's bunch includes a proven sire in Maria's Mon (Monarchos in 2001) from an A.P. Indy mare. As my family in Arkansas would say, "It just don't get no better than that."
2011 Derby list #1
1) Dialed In - Surely the recency effect is why I'm putting this guy in my top spot, as he broke poorly then absolutely leveled the field in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last week. After a dry spell in the classics, Nick Zito heated up last year with Ice Box and Fly Down and seems to be... well, "dialed in" with this one for long-time owner Robert LaPenta.
2) To Honor and Serve - Bill Mott broke through in Triple Crown races with Drosselmeyer in last year's Belmont and this one seems to be uber talented. Note that he dominated the same two Aqueduct graded stakes as Buddy's Saint - last year's "it" horse at this point. But he's won 3 of 4 at three different tracks, which gives me a better feeling. This 575K yearling purchase is one of several live runners by hot sire Bernardini, who is so highly thought of that Zenyatta chose him as her "first" to take a roll in the hay with next week!
3) Uncle Mo - This tends to be where I start the heavy favorites in my lists, just high enough not to look stupid if he wins the Triple Crown, but with a couple others ahead to say "I told you so" if his form doesn't carry over into his three year-old season. Trust me, I know this horse has all the tools - I was there to see him go from second on the turn to squirt to a five length lead with no urging whatsoever. As for the distance concern being out of Indian Charlie, several recent Derby winners have been out of true milers and his damsire is Arch. Sound familiar? Proud papa to Blame - who held off the mighty Zenyatta over 10 furlongs on the very track that Uncle Mo will seek history.
4) Machen - Here is where I expect to get some puzzled looks. This horse has only started twice - both in 2011 at the Fair Grounds against non-winner allowance horses. But he is conditioned by a veteran horseman in Neil Howard and could be his biggest thing since Summer Squall. Although not by A.P. Indy, I love both his mama and his papa. Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide ('03 Derby winner) and Ready's Gal was a multiple stakes winner out of a terrific producer of juveniles - More Than Ready. Machen's most recent runaway win at over a mile proves he's just hitting his stride. He COULD be another late developing type, ala Big Brown.
5) Santiva - The son of top sire for 2010 (Giant's Causeway) has shown versatility in his four starts on three different surfaces while stalking in a couple of contests and coming from the clouds two back on the Keeneland polytrack. He showed his guts in his last race when he came back again between horses to score a narrow victory and seems to be a very manageable horse, which is rare for a young sophomore. His race replays indicate that he wants more ground, which works out nicely for the 1 1/4 miles of The Derby, but he must prove his worth on the tough Gulfstream path via Fountain of Youth off a long layoff... stay tuned!
6) Tapizar - This son of Tapit by a Deputy Minister mare has stepped up his game by leaps and bounds his last two races, improving times by 3 full seconds each race at the same distance (although the most recent was the new dirt course at Santa Anita leading to record times). I don't like his front-running style, but according to some quotes he doesn't appear to be a speed or nothing horse, such as Sidney's Candy or Rule from last year. Steve Asmussen hopes to bounce back from a lackluster season and is taking an atypical Santa Anita path to Louisville with this one.
7) Jaycito - At first glance, I thought this son of Victory Gallop was overrated. Some good results on the left coast before throwing in a clunker to finish 7th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill Downs - we've all seen this pattern before! But upon further review, this colt has had abysmal luck in each start, yet has managed to already win a Grade I start at over a mile while outfinishing the heralded J P's Gusto. His BC race was a total toss when he bolted terribly on the first turn, yet he managed to pass 3 or 4 horses before the wire. Speaking of bad luck, his owner, Ahmed Zayat, owned Eskenderaya last year, who I believe would have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been injured before The Derby. Perhaps the racing gods will settle his tab this year. The talent filled Robert Lewis Stakes next weekend at Santa Anita awaits.
8) Elite Alex - The obvious son of Afleet Alex is also trained by Tim Ritchey, who is unguardedly high on this one. He stumbled at the break of his Oaklawn stakes debut (sound familiar - Afleet Alex being tripped by Scrappy T. at the head of the stretch in Preakness?!) and came back with some nicks and bruises after finishing a game second, but turned in a scorching bullet work a few days ago before the ice storm blanketed the mid-south. As if a 3YO champion father wasn't enough, he carries the Fappiano (via Unbridled) and Nureyev bloodlines on his bottom side, which gives him about as many pluses as I can circle on a five-cross chart. Can't wait to see this guy in person on President's Day for the Southwest Mile.
9) Washington's Rules - In this time of political turmoil, this son of Roman Ruler wants to buck the system (ha - I made another joke, get it... "buck" the system?). I really like this sire (son of Fusaichi Pegasus via Mr. Prospector) and have my eye on a couple recently turned 2YO's of Roman Ruler - who if he wins will immediately become more expensive! But I love the fact that his damsire is only the grittiest horse ever (along with Skip Away), Silver Charm. This guy can close like a freight train and if he's in the mix in the final furlong is likely to win on heart alone.
10) Sweet Ducky - This Pulpit pupil ran in the wake of Dialed In last time out at Gulfstream. If history repeats itself, he could be like Jackson Bend last year, who followed around Eskenderaya twice but then proved to be about as good as anybody else. Also, I must give props to my brother Danny "Duck" on the name, who was anything but sweet. Take the Steelers and the points with this guy in the futures book, and you've got a pretty sweet parlay going!
So many more horses on the bubble, but they'll have to wait for future defections. One teaser is Rocking Out, who has only a maiden score but is bred to go long.
Can't wait to see how these stack up, now send me your picks!
Happy Hunting,
E
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