Creative Cause’s trainer, Mike Harrington - age 71, and owner, Heinz
Steinmann - age 80, seek to turn back the clock this Cinco de Mayo, as did Sea
Hero’s Derby winning connections back in 1993 (see below). Harrington is a
fourth generation horseman, having spent over 50 years near a racetrack as
either a trainer or veterinarian for both quarter and thoroughbred horse breeds. Herren Steinmann has been his major owner/supporter now for
two decades, sending him a few young horses each year. The pair previously enjoyed Grade I success
with California star Swiss Yodeler in the 1990’s, producing enough earnings to
keep him involved in the game at a high level. Creative Cause was originally a
$135,000 Keenland yearling purchase, followed by a private sale to “Heinz-Stein”
(nickname opportunities abound!).
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May 4, 2012
April 30, 2012
Ode to Kentucky Derby 138
My Creative Cause for this year's Kentucky Derby contains some international flare...
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April 22, 2012
Derby 138 - Final Ranking
Unlike most items (such as tax filings and house chores), I have taken the initiative to handicap The Derby two weeks in advance, leaving the final betting strategy until after the post position draw. I have removed horse 8, 9 and 10 from my last ranking; News Pending, Najjaar and Midnight Transfer since they failed to fire as long-shots in their last prep and won't be in The Derby 20 horse starting gate. The race is most assuredly going to get 20 actual starters this year with the four also eligible list in case of late scratches. So this is how I see things heading into Louisville...
1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.
2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.
3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.
6) Union Rags: I actually think he will be more bettable after his 3rd place finish getting boxed in the entire race of the Florida Derby. I still feel that he may have distance limitations, but Matz has commented that his huge size and running style is much different than other Dixie Union offspring, so he could be the exception (ala Big Brown via Boundary). Certainly the one I like most coming out of Florida, although Take Charge Indy appears to be stepping up at the right time.
7) Alpha: Since as many Derby winners come off place finishes in their final prep, I prefer this one's style to that of the undefeated Gemologist out of the Wood Memorial, which speed numbers were one of the slower 9 furlong prep races. But his breeding is solid for this race and he could be sitting on his breakout race, which puts him right there at the wire.
8) Daddy Nose Best: Sire Scat Daddy is off to a surprisingly hot start and there seems to be more stamina to this horse being out of the classic winning damsire, Thunder Gulch. Has improved nicely in his only two starts as a 3YO after trying the turf late in his juvenile campaign. Perfect closing style and not too many of these can boast two wins under their belts in 9 furlong races. In my opinion, he may present the best betting action as the livest of deep long-shots.
9)El Padrino: Pretty sure he will make The Derby field even though currently on the earnings bubble, but totally disappointed with his flat stretch run at Gulfstream. Perhaps his jock was too pre-occupied with trying to pin Union Rags down on rail to actually run his race. I've been burned several times with tossing my early season picks in The Derby due to one bad race (Bluegrass Cat), so I'll hope a change in tactics or riders will get him back on his game at much nicer odds. But seems like 2nd/3rd could be the best this guy has to offer.
10) Prospective: Certainly did not run as I had hoped in the Blue Grass, but Keenland's polytrack is different than the synthetic surfaces on which he ran in Canada. He had been very consistent closing in his prior dirt starts at Tampa Bay Downs and I will likely put him on bottom in my exotics. Some years, a horse good enough to run third can possibly even steal the race (i.e., Giacomo, Mine That Bird). He is one of numerous Breeders' Cup Juvenile starters back to battle in the big dance!
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1) Bodemeister: Not only adding this handsome son of Empire Maker in my final listing, but now he is my horse to beat for The Derby after seeing his smashing Arkansas Derby victory in person! I am the first to admit that field was one of the weakest in years, but horses seldom crush fields the way he did under Mike Smith. With such an evenly group of sophomores, he is the one that I can imagine taking another step forward on May 5th, like lightly raced Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I think his post position will be critical and would like to see him draw one of the outer third spots and sitting a couple lengths off the pace since he did not fare well against Creative Cause in the San Felipe when down towards the rail.
2) Creative Cause: I said before that a first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into The Derby. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip, which he got in the SA Derby in running a coin toss finish to I'll Have Another. I've said all spring that the California contingent appears to be the cream of the crop and this has been validated with the final prep results. I think there is no dispute that this guy has the best resume heading into Louisville, but perhaps he has already proven all he can when others have a chance to "pop" a big one.
3) I'll Have Another: I started this guy out fairly high as a sleeper pick but he has stepped up to the plate and hit two HR's in his gutsy California victories (remember, SA has a dirt surface again in 2012). His sire Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. It's hard to sepaprate him with CC, but I expect at least one of these guys to be first or second at Churchill Downs.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish two back at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn. Then, his Bluegrass Stakes win looked strong as he flourished in the last 1/16th of a mile to blow by Hansen, although his gallop out looked a bit stiff to me rather than encouraging that he is a true 10 furlong horse. But after last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Went the Day Well: New York bred (ala '03 Derby winner Funny Cide) getting in on The Derby action with his 3YO campaign looking like Animal Kingdom thus far. Solid breeding by a KY Derby placed sire really coming into his own in Proud Citizen out of a Tiznow mare. Coming off a win in the Vinery Spiral on synthetic where he layed much closer to the lead from the 4 hole, handling the dirt kick-back and splitting horses very well, something that will come in handy in the 20 horse stampede that is The Derby! Will likely get much more respect at the windows since Team Valor and Graham Motion pulled it off last year with Animal Kingdom.
6) Union Rags: I actually think he will be more bettable after his 3rd place finish getting boxed in the entire race of the Florida Derby. I still feel that he may have distance limitations, but Matz has commented that his huge size and running style is much different than other Dixie Union offspring, so he could be the exception (ala Big Brown via Boundary). Certainly the one I like most coming out of Florida, although Take Charge Indy appears to be stepping up at the right time.
7) Alpha: Since as many Derby winners come off place finishes in their final prep, I prefer this one's style to that of the undefeated Gemologist out of the Wood Memorial, which speed numbers were one of the slower 9 furlong prep races. But his breeding is solid for this race and he could be sitting on his breakout race, which puts him right there at the wire.
8) Daddy Nose Best: Sire Scat Daddy is off to a surprisingly hot start and there seems to be more stamina to this horse being out of the classic winning damsire, Thunder Gulch. Has improved nicely in his only two starts as a 3YO after trying the turf late in his juvenile campaign. Perfect closing style and not too many of these can boast two wins under their belts in 9 furlong races. In my opinion, he may present the best betting action as the livest of deep long-shots.
9)El Padrino: Pretty sure he will make The Derby field even though currently on the earnings bubble, but totally disappointed with his flat stretch run at Gulfstream. Perhaps his jock was too pre-occupied with trying to pin Union Rags down on rail to actually run his race. I've been burned several times with tossing my early season picks in The Derby due to one bad race (Bluegrass Cat), so I'll hope a change in tactics or riders will get him back on his game at much nicer odds. But seems like 2nd/3rd could be the best this guy has to offer.
10) Prospective: Certainly did not run as I had hoped in the Blue Grass, but Keenland's polytrack is different than the synthetic surfaces on which he ran in Canada. He had been very consistent closing in his prior dirt starts at Tampa Bay Downs and I will likely put him on bottom in my exotics. Some years, a horse good enough to run third can possibly even steal the race (i.e., Giacomo, Mine That Bird). He is one of numerous Breeders' Cup Juvenile starters back to battle in the big dance!
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April 19, 2012
Bodemeister romps in Ark Derby, Unbridled potential
Vindication was a son of Seattle Slew who was voted champion two year-old colt in 2002. But there is another sort of vindication brewing about now. That is the goal of Bodemeister to make up for the two narrow defeats in America's Greatest Race suffered by his father, Empire Maker, and brother, Pioneerof the Nile. His male ancestors are descendants from the potent Classic winning bloodline via Fappiano. I will be the first to question out loud what several thoroughbred historians may be thinking after recently watching the grossly historical inaccurate (but inspirational story nonetheless) movie on HBO for the umpteenth time... wasn't Secretariat also foaled in Virginia?
Audley Farm Inc. in Virginia is credited as breeder of Bodemeister, the imposing $260,000 Keenland yearling purchase son of Empire Maker out of the Storm Cat mare, Untouched Talent. In two of his four career races, that is exactly what Bodemeister has been - untouched talent. He has the speed to grind his opponents into submission and the stamina to reload in the stretch. Veteran rider Mike Smith appears to be a great addition to this horse by trainer Bob Baffert, who utterly dominated the Oaklawn Park winter meet like no other trainer in its illustrious history, including D. Wayne Lukas. The silver fox won 6 of 9 entries with his California shippers in 2012 and is now 16 out of 25 lifetime at the Spa of the South, predominantly at the stakes level.
What I am really amazed by is how many "astute" handicappers are expecting a bounce race just because Bodemeister is so lightly raced and coming off three consecutive huge efforts. I took a similar stance towards a horse named Nehro last year and it cost me dearly as my long-shot pick Animal Kingdom won the race and the only exacta I had was a $2 wheel with the winner. Nehro was the obvious choice coming into last year's Derby -- he was on top of his game and had handled the class test more than adequately in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies despite his first career race just months removed on Dec. 12th. Not only has Bodemeister had two monster wins, he also got beat less than a length by the most proven horse in this 3YO crop, Creative Cause, in the San Felipe stakes in his first race beyond one mile. One could certainly make the argument that Bode is more suited for 10 furlongs of The Derby than CC based on their breeding and is still improving with each start.
But I will point out not only lightly raced Nehro from last year, who some may argue as a closer would more predictably run better in the Derby, but what about Barbaro's dominant 2006 performance and Big Brown's cakewalk with only 3 lifetime starts in 2008? Their speed favoring style turned many away in the Derby, yet they were each able to sit off a couple of horses early and draw away from the field on the far turn with their high cruising speed. Surely Mike Smith being the savvy rider he is knows not to gun Bode to the front as Bode is already accustomed to sitting off horses and has done so in two of his four career starts. With an outside post and a nice stalking trip, look for Bodemeister to wipe Apollo off the record books as the last horse to win The Derby without having run at age 2. This will be one of the final hurdles to fall, the previous "jinxes" being only two preps in current year, above 4.0 dosage index, being a gelding or filly, five+ week since last race, etc.
So my plea to my fellow handicappers is don't be an idiot like I was in the Arkansas Derby and "hope" that this clearly superior animal won't run his race on the first Saturday in May. I'd hate for you to look this gift horse in the mouth!
Audley Farm Inc. in Virginia is credited as breeder of Bodemeister, the imposing $260,000 Keenland yearling purchase son of Empire Maker out of the Storm Cat mare, Untouched Talent. In two of his four career races, that is exactly what Bodemeister has been - untouched talent. He has the speed to grind his opponents into submission and the stamina to reload in the stretch. Veteran rider Mike Smith appears to be a great addition to this horse by trainer Bob Baffert, who utterly dominated the Oaklawn Park winter meet like no other trainer in its illustrious history, including D. Wayne Lukas. The silver fox won 6 of 9 entries with his California shippers in 2012 and is now 16 out of 25 lifetime at the Spa of the South, predominantly at the stakes level.
What I am really amazed by is how many "astute" handicappers are expecting a bounce race just because Bodemeister is so lightly raced and coming off three consecutive huge efforts. I took a similar stance towards a horse named Nehro last year and it cost me dearly as my long-shot pick Animal Kingdom won the race and the only exacta I had was a $2 wheel with the winner. Nehro was the obvious choice coming into last year's Derby -- he was on top of his game and had handled the class test more than adequately in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies despite his first career race just months removed on Dec. 12th. Not only has Bodemeister had two monster wins, he also got beat less than a length by the most proven horse in this 3YO crop, Creative Cause, in the San Felipe stakes in his first race beyond one mile. One could certainly make the argument that Bode is more suited for 10 furlongs of The Derby than CC based on their breeding and is still improving with each start.
But I will point out not only lightly raced Nehro from last year, who some may argue as a closer would more predictably run better in the Derby, but what about Barbaro's dominant 2006 performance and Big Brown's cakewalk with only 3 lifetime starts in 2008? Their speed favoring style turned many away in the Derby, yet they were each able to sit off a couple of horses early and draw away from the field on the far turn with their high cruising speed. Surely Mike Smith being the savvy rider he is knows not to gun Bode to the front as Bode is already accustomed to sitting off horses and has done so in two of his four career starts. With an outside post and a nice stalking trip, look for Bodemeister to wipe Apollo off the record books as the last horse to win The Derby without having run at age 2. This will be one of the final hurdles to fall, the previous "jinxes" being only two preps in current year, above 4.0 dosage index, being a gelding or filly, five+ week since last race, etc.
So my plea to my fellow handicappers is don't be an idiot like I was in the Arkansas Derby and "hope" that this clearly superior animal won't run his race on the first Saturday in May. I'd hate for you to look this gift horse in the mouth!
April 14, 2012
Arkansas Derby Day hunches
Oaklawn has a big day in store for the Arkansas fans (who need a distraction after this Petrino mess), with three graded stakes races on the final card of the meet. In the Count Fleet sprint, Izzy Rules looks to tower over the field, but former $4,000 claimer (that's only four thousand!!) Outta Tune will try to play the spoiler role in this one. Sometimes, speed knows no class boundaries, like on yesterday's program where a $6,250 claiming race went several ticks faster for 6 furlongs than an allowance!
The Oaklawn Handicap has perhaps the deepest field since Cigar won the 1994 edition, with the likes of Nehro (looking for his first graded victory after playing seconditis in last year's Derby trail), Win Willy, Hymn Book, Alternation and Ron the Greek. Look for Alternation and perhaps longer priced Yawanna Twist to take advantage of the lack of pace over the speed favoring Oaklawn strip.
And finally the 76th running of the Arkansas Derby, where I am predicting an upset of a monumental proportion -- just not sure which longshots will get to the wire first. I like Cozzetti and Najjaar both at 15-1 on the morning line, but the unheralded shipper, Isn't He Clever, probably has the perfect running style to sit just off of the powerful Baffert one-two punch in Secret Circle and Bodemeister and take down the $1 million purse. Sabercat and/or Raconteur could also hit the board at obscene odds. So in closing, I am hoping today's Arkansas Derby goes the way of the Louisiana and Florida Derbies that will light up the tote board and load up my pockets. Happy racing to you all and may all your bets be winning ones.
The Oaklawn Handicap has perhaps the deepest field since Cigar won the 1994 edition, with the likes of Nehro (looking for his first graded victory after playing seconditis in last year's Derby trail), Win Willy, Hymn Book, Alternation and Ron the Greek. Look for Alternation and perhaps longer priced Yawanna Twist to take advantage of the lack of pace over the speed favoring Oaklawn strip.
And finally the 76th running of the Arkansas Derby, where I am predicting an upset of a monumental proportion -- just not sure which longshots will get to the wire first. I like Cozzetti and Najjaar both at 15-1 on the morning line, but the unheralded shipper, Isn't He Clever, probably has the perfect running style to sit just off of the powerful Baffert one-two punch in Secret Circle and Bodemeister and take down the $1 million purse. Sabercat and/or Raconteur could also hit the board at obscene odds. So in closing, I am hoping today's Arkansas Derby goes the way of the Louisiana and Florida Derbies that will light up the tote board and load up my pockets. Happy racing to you all and may all your bets be winning ones.
March 10, 2012
Derby Top Ten - Take 3
I'm having to "scratch" three horses due to injuries; Algorithms, Fed Biz and Out of Bounds. However, my top horses have run very much the way I had anticipated in their early preps and I continue with confidence in my third Derby rating. While others are filling out NCAA brackets, I am refining my Derby Top 10 list!!
1) El Padrino: Very professional in his impressive Risen Star Stakes victory which should have tightened his screws based on that long stretch duel with Mark Valenski at Fair Grounds. One more good showing - likely the $1 million LA Derby - and this guy heads to Louisville as a top 3 betting choice. Proved that he can rate just off the lead, a major plus in The Derby.
2) Creative Causeway: Third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente and then a hard fought victory in the 8.5 furlong San Felipe against a decent cast, where he hit his best stride at the finish line. A first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into the Derby as a fresh horse with the spacing of his 3YO campaign. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip.
3) Prospective: Moving him up one spot into my trifecta after Algorithms' injury. After running a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs he won their Derby this weekend. He laid closer to the pace in the TB Derby about 6th down on the rail and easily followed the jock's commands on the turn. Now I know why he was my favorite "hunch" play of the winter after taking the Grey Stakes in Canada as a juvenile. Trainer Mark Casse is more dominant than even Todd Pletcher with his northern counterparts and may receive wider acclaim with a good showing by Prospective.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish this weekend at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn but couldn't catch Howe Great, who had it all his way. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by heading to the Bluegrass Stakes for a final synthetic prep. After last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)
6) I'll Have Another: A surprising name considering the Jockey Club's all-business attitude towards approving names after Mike Pegram slipped "Isitingood" by the board some years ago (who went on to become a track record setter, by the way). Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. Wouldn't be out of the question to see him run into the exotics on the first Saturday in May.
7)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections. Looks like he'll be returning this weekend to Hot Springs for the Rebel Stakes.
8) News Pending: Any handicapper who still follows the "dosage index" theory of Derby winners will be salivating at the 1.33 index and 0.33 center of distribution that this guy carries with the Harlan's Holiday over Lear Fan (via Roberto) damside. But he's still fast enough to finish second in the 1 1/16th mile FOY, which makes him dangerous considering that race typically produces speed oriented results. Dale Romans backup plan if Dullahan doesn't make the field or can't handle traditional dirt surface.
9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. After taking a NX2 allowance score with Bo-Bo Borel in the irons, will probably wheel back in two weeks rest for the deep Rebel Stakes on St. Patrick's Day.
10) Midnight Transfer: I can't believe I'm using my final pick to add another west coast horse, but he did run within a few lenghts to Creative Causeway withouth the best of pace scenario in the Grade II San Felipe. The son of Hard Spun carries a flat 2.00 dosage index and could be on the improve with only two starts in 2012. Will need to pick up another fat check in the SA Derby to qualify for Kentucky, but with the top west coast horses calling Oaklawn home, that is certainly plausible. Besides, there aren't a lot of attractive horses left on the trail via attrition (other than speedsters Hansen and Alpha, who I am taking a pass on).
1) El Padrino: Very professional in his impressive Risen Star Stakes victory which should have tightened his screws based on that long stretch duel with Mark Valenski at Fair Grounds. One more good showing - likely the $1 million LA Derby - and this guy heads to Louisville as a top 3 betting choice. Proved that he can rate just off the lead, a major plus in The Derby.
2) Creative Causeway: Third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente and then a hard fought victory in the 8.5 furlong San Felipe against a decent cast, where he hit his best stride at the finish line. A first or second placing in the Santa Anita Derby will have him moving forward into the Derby as a fresh horse with the spacing of his 3YO campaign. Very confident that he will continue to run well with an honest pace and a clean trip.
3) Prospective: Moving him up one spot into my trifecta after Algorithms' injury. After running a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs he won their Derby this weekend. He laid closer to the pace in the TB Derby about 6th down on the rail and easily followed the jock's commands on the turn. Now I know why he was my favorite "hunch" play of the winter after taking the Grey Stakes in Canada as a juvenile. Trainer Mark Casse is more dominant than even Todd Pletcher with his northern counterparts and may receive wider acclaim with a good showing by Prospective.
4) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a solid second place finish this weekend at 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream lawn but couldn't catch Howe Great, who had it all his way. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by heading to the Bluegrass Stakes for a final synthetic prep. After last year seeing Shackleford's handling, I am very much a believer in Dale Romans ability to have a horse ready for the spring classics.
5) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)
6) I'll Have Another: A surprising name considering the Jockey Club's all-business attitude towards approving names after Mike Pegram slipped "Isitingood" by the board some years ago (who went on to become a track record setter, by the way). Flower Alley registered well down the list of 2nd crop sires to close out 2011 at #13, but whenever a distance laden sire produces a horse with a turn of foot like this you'd better watch out. Wouldn't be out of the question to see him run into the exotics on the first Saturday in May.
7)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections. Looks like he'll be returning this weekend to Hot Springs for the Rebel Stakes.
8) News Pending: Any handicapper who still follows the "dosage index" theory of Derby winners will be salivating at the 1.33 index and 0.33 center of distribution that this guy carries with the Harlan's Holiday over Lear Fan (via Roberto) damside. But he's still fast enough to finish second in the 1 1/16th mile FOY, which makes him dangerous considering that race typically produces speed oriented results. Dale Romans backup plan if Dullahan doesn't make the field or can't handle traditional dirt surface.
9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. After taking a NX2 allowance score with Bo-Bo Borel in the irons, will probably wheel back in two weeks rest for the deep Rebel Stakes on St. Patrick's Day.
10) Midnight Transfer: I can't believe I'm using my final pick to add another west coast horse, but he did run within a few lenghts to Creative Causeway withouth the best of pace scenario in the Grade II San Felipe. The son of Hard Spun carries a flat 2.00 dosage index and could be on the improve with only two starts in 2012. Will need to pick up another fat check in the SA Derby to qualify for Kentucky, but with the top west coast horses calling Oaklawn home, that is certainly plausible. Besides, there aren't a lot of attractive horses left on the trail via attrition (other than speedsters Hansen and Alpha, who I am taking a pass on).
February 26, 2012
Derby 138 Top Ten List - Part II
1) El Padrino: Very professional in his impressive Risen Star Stakes victory which should have tightened his screws based on that long stretch duel with Mark Valenski at Fair Grounds. One more good showing - likely the $1 million LA Derby - and this guy heads to Louisville as a top 3 betting choice. Proved that he can rate just off the lead, a major plus in The Derby.
2) Creative Causeway: His third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente was fine by me, especially watching him gallop out past the wire. Two more preps should have him moving forward into the Derby rather than regressing from a tough spring training, as many of his foes will experience just to make The Derby starting field.
3) Algorithms: I leave him in my top three now assuming his scratch from Sunday's Fountain of Youth isn't a big deal. Would have loved to see how he fared vs. Union Rags is his dominating performance, but it will have to wait for the time being. Has the pedigree and talent to still get it done if he gets back on the worktab soon. The FOY scratch may put him on a softer path to Louisville (via Aqueduct).
4) Prospective: Ran a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs and was flattered by two recent starters. John Servis' Adirondack King, who ran third behind this guy at Tampa at 7 furlongs, closed well to hit the board in the "fast" division of the Southwest Stakes behind Secret Circle. Also, Neck n' Neck had a decent fourth place finish in the FOY after running behind Prospective in the Sam Davis. He comes from far back but could be a live Derby long-shot, ala Animal Kingdom last year.
5) Fed Biz: Ran a sub 1:35 mile at Santa Anita on Feb. 9th while stalking a hot pace and pouring it on in the stretch. Impeccably bred Giant's Causeway colt out of a Wild Again mare. Starting to become a buzz horse thanks to the success of Baffert's deep stable (won both divisions of Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn) but remember, you heard it here first!
6) Out of Bounds: I'll stop shy of throwing the baby out with the bathwater after Discreet Dancer's (both out of Discreet Cat) poor showing after setting a mild pace in the FOY before spitting the bit. Probably won't get the 10 furlong distance but at least he's a closer that can get a part of it. War Emblem's pedigree certainly wasn't ideal for 10 furlongs either yet he got it done in 2002. Want to see one more race before I potentially dismiss him.
7) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)
8) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a nice bullet 5 furlong work on the dirt at Gulfstream last week. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by debuting on the turf in Florida followed by a synthetic prep. With in the money showings he will earn his way into the Churchill Downs starting gate.
9)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections.
10) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. Probably comes back in the deep Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on St. Patrick's Day.
2) Creative Causeway: His third place finish in the 7 furlong San Vincente was fine by me, especially watching him gallop out past the wire. Two more preps should have him moving forward into the Derby rather than regressing from a tough spring training, as many of his foes will experience just to make The Derby starting field.
3) Algorithms: I leave him in my top three now assuming his scratch from Sunday's Fountain of Youth isn't a big deal. Would have loved to see how he fared vs. Union Rags is his dominating performance, but it will have to wait for the time being. Has the pedigree and talent to still get it done if he gets back on the worktab soon. The FOY scratch may put him on a softer path to Louisville (via Aqueduct).
4) Prospective: Ran a solid second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay Downs and was flattered by two recent starters. John Servis' Adirondack King, who ran third behind this guy at Tampa at 7 furlongs, closed well to hit the board in the "fast" division of the Southwest Stakes behind Secret Circle. Also, Neck n' Neck had a decent fourth place finish in the FOY after running behind Prospective in the Sam Davis. He comes from far back but could be a live Derby long-shot, ala Animal Kingdom last year.
5) Fed Biz: Ran a sub 1:35 mile at Santa Anita on Feb. 9th while stalking a hot pace and pouring it on in the stretch. Impeccably bred Giant's Causeway colt out of a Wild Again mare. Starting to become a buzz horse thanks to the success of Baffert's deep stable (won both divisions of Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn) but remember, you heard it here first!
6) Out of Bounds: I'll stop shy of throwing the baby out with the bathwater after Discreet Dancer's (both out of Discreet Cat) poor showing after setting a mild pace in the FOY before spitting the bit. Probably won't get the 10 furlong distance but at least he's a closer that can get a part of it. War Emblem's pedigree certainly wasn't ideal for 10 furlongs either yet he got it done in 2002. Want to see one more race before I potentially dismiss him.
7) Union Rags: I know, I know -- that was a huge win in the FOY, but he had a dream trip and with Algorithms scratching we're still not sure what he beat in that field with those crawling 24 second splits. I still get dejavu with Union Rags reminding me of Uncle Mo and the latter's Timely Writer allowance/stakes win was even more impressive as he geared up for Louisville yet he proved to have distance limitations. As in years past, I certainly hope he heads into Churchill with all the hype continuing as the best way to cash a huge Derby ticket is to beat a heavy favorite:)
8) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Had a nice bullet 5 furlong work on the dirt at Gulfstream last week. Will follow the path of Paddy O' Prado by debuting on the turf in Florida followed by a synthetic prep. With in the money showings he will earn his way into the Churchill Downs starting gate.
9)Castaway: After flipping on his back in the Oaklawn infield while being saddled, this 400K plus son of Derby winner Street Sense dusted himself off, then dusted his competition from the outside #11 post. That race clearly was the softer side of the Southwest, but I also believe he left more in the tank and has more upside and distance advantage than Secret Circle or Scatman. Must respect Baffert and the Coolmore connections.
10) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. His work times have taken a major step forward after that maiden score which is a great sign for such a late closing horse. Probably comes back in the deep Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on St. Patrick's Day.
February 4, 2012
2012 Kentucky Derby Top 10 list (leave the gun, take the cannoli)
Happy Derby season to all! With the first real Derby prep weekend on tap with the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and Sam Davis (not "the Candyman" Sammy Davis) at Tampa Bay Downs, it's time to get some picks registered.
Last year my Derby top 10 list was abysmal pretty much the entire season, although I did connect with Animal Kingdom as my long-shot play the first Saturday in May. I started 2011 off with Dialed In (wow, has he even threatened since the FL Derby?), To Honor and Serve (late bloomer) and Uncle Mo (clearly a hedge). However, two years ago I would venture to guess my top five as of February 1st proved to be as accurate as anyone in our industry since I had Lookin At Lucky first (Preakness), Super Saver second (KY Derby) and Drosselmeyer fifth (Belmont), nailing the Triple Crown in my early book top five! Furthermore, I had Eskendereya ranked at #7 a month before he freaked in the Fountain of Youth - and after a poor ninth place finish in the BC Juvenile (save that thought).
So I'm banking on the fact that I am more of an even year kind of guy -- here goes the 2012 Derby inaugural top 10 list that I will be updating about every 3 weeks...
1) The Godfather (errr.... El Padrino): First off, you've gotta love the name. I'm an actual Godfather six times over to various nieces and nephews and my wife can quote the movie like it's nobody's business ("Luco Brossi sleeps with the fishes" or "Leave the gun, take the cannoli"). Looking at Pulpit's progeny record on www.bloodhorse.com it's shocking that this big name sire has so few millionaires. Particulary, not all that much success with his sophomores (i.e. Pyro, Corinthian, Essense of Dubai) with the fluke Ice Box running into the Kentucky Derby exacta in 2010 on a wet track being the lone exception. Pulpit is seven years older than his son and the "it" sire Tapit, yet the son has as many North American millionaires as his pappa, including BC Juvenile champ Hansen (um-bop). And to add insult to injury, Tapit's stud fee is nearly three times that of the elder statesman (still both are young by sire standards, though). Imagine how Pulpit feels at family barbecues when Tapit rolls up hours late in his Jaguar with booze and smoke billowing from his ride, "Yo dad... I need another hundo for my date tonight -- taking Smart Strike's daughter out to the movies." I say Pulpit has had quite enough and will rectify the situation with his first Derby winner. You've gotta love the Giant's Causeway dam completing this powerful breeding nick pattern.
2) Creative Causeway: This is a beautiful grey blob (props to Silver Charm) of Giant's Causeway who has done little wrong in his five starts at two, including three Grade 1's and a Grade 2. This guy has so much back class at this young age and has duplicated the juvenile race pattern of 2YO AND 3YO Eclipse Champion, Lookin At Lucky, with nearly identical success. He was given about two months off after his show finish in the BC Juvenile by conditioner Mike Harrington and has returned smartly to the worktab. As Harry Caray would say (another grey blob)... "I smell trouble here, Sherri."
3) Algorithms: Being of German descent and a tax accountant by trade, I respect this name. Dictionary.com defines this noun as, "a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor." Absolutely exploded in his first start beyond a sprint distance and being by Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance mare this mo-fo should want to run all day long. Clearly is poised to be the next "Big E" - a budding star at Gulfstream from the Pletcher barn - IF he can stay healthy. Three starts and three convincing wins. Not only that, but when a horse bred for distance is as fast as this mo-fo at five and six furlongs, you have a top Derby candidate on your hands (see Lil E. Tee).
Frankly, I could stop my Derby top 10 at this point as confident as I am in these three selections. I'm looking down at about two dozen more names on my yellow pad with most of them containing a line struck through their names after viewing race replays or looking over race charts. But for the love of the game I will press on with as many names as my faith allows me to put to writing...
4) Prospective: I love me some Malibu and Coke Zero. Oh, what I meant to say is that I love Malibu Moon as a sire. Especially with the cross to Awesome Again, who I believe is an underrated sire and could very well follow in his father's (Deputy Minister) footsteps to become an excellent broodmare sire. This guy has a double dose of Seattle Slew coursing through his veins and if you didn't notice, the Slew swept the Triple Crown back in 1977. Some will say that he does not fit with the top 3YO's since he finished up the track (13th) in the BC Juvenile, but please refer to where Eskendereya placed in my earlier paragraph. Obviously, colts at this age change quite a bit as their skeletal systems continue to develop and I'm willing to chalk that up to a bad day at the office.
Speaking of chalk, most of you are probably wondering where the top two finishers of the BC Juvenile will rank, Hansen and Union Rags. Well hold that thought, because I will have to see one or both win at 9 furlongs before I put these speed oriented bred horse on my list of colts, geldings or fillies that could actually WIN a Derby (and/or Triple Crown race). I'll eat my words if I must, but at this moment Union Rags reminds me quite a bit of Uncle Mo (finally proved that he was NOT a distance horse in the BC Classic). Not only that, at least Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile win was scintillating visually and time-wise, while the 2011 edition leaves a lot to be desired with the positive split times of each quarter mile. Thus, I'm going with horses who could threaten the winner's circle at 10 furlongs, not "hang on" for third.
5) Out of Bounds: I'm a little nervous about this pick, but that's why they call it horse racing, right, right?? His dosage index is in the vicinity of 6.00, but he has a nice stride to him and good running style of laying off the pace but always within striking distance. I hear some chatter that his sire Discreet Cat could be the next great miler sire, just like his dad Forestry struck with Shackleford last year. His Sham Stakes win against Baffert's Secret Circle (who had the speed edge) was a classic cat-like move of sitting and pouncing in the stretch. Meooowwww.
6) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Versatile enough that his connections can't yet commit to dirt or turf, thus his 2YO season was a work in progress. After two full months off (I like this training strategy - Victory Gallop came back strong at Oaklawn Park after a few months off) he's just now back in training at Gulfstream and may only get two starts prior to The Derby. Could be the fresh horse to take the bouquet of roses much like Animal Kingdom last year.
7) Mr. Bowling: Impressive Lecomte Stakes winner at Fair Grounds is sired by a new son of Gone West that also has Atigun firing at Oaklawn Park. Was a beaten favorite finishing third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois last fall under Calvin Borel. Working very fast at the Gentilly Avenue track, which is encouraging for a distance laden horse. Larry Jones is known for his magic with the fillies, but maybe this is his ticket to Derby day.
8) Fed Biz: Here's another Giant's Causeway (embarrassment of riches) colt out of a Wild Again mare. For those that don't recall, Wild Again was the winner of a hotly contested inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic race. He proved valuable as a sire although he hasn't been in the press in quite a while. He was euthanized in 2008 at age 28 after servicing many mares in meritorious service at Three Chimney Farms. Though only having a maiden score under his belt, Baffert has him cranked up on the west coast for a big debut soon.
9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. If he gets some pace to set things up for him it could prove to be what elevates him to the top of his division on any given day.
10) Reckless Jerry: Last year it was Oklahoma based Donnie Von Hemel who was dancing for joy with the success of Caleb's Posse and Alternation. This year it could be fellow Oklahoman Toby Keith's turn to strike it big on the national stage. Reckless Jerry ran well in the midwest last fall and came out sharp in a close second while racing wide to Junebugred (Corinthian) in the Smarty Jones Stakes on opening weekend. His sire, Cactus Ridge (Hennessy), also was raced by Keith's Dream Walkin Farms and scorched the track from 4 1/2 furlongs to one mile before he was injured undefeated after his Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity score. His son Reckless Jerry has revenge on his mind, much like Toby when he sang, "we'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American way..." in his Red, White and Blue tribute tour.
Last year my Derby top 10 list was abysmal pretty much the entire season, although I did connect with Animal Kingdom as my long-shot play the first Saturday in May. I started 2011 off with Dialed In (wow, has he even threatened since the FL Derby?), To Honor and Serve (late bloomer) and Uncle Mo (clearly a hedge). However, two years ago I would venture to guess my top five as of February 1st proved to be as accurate as anyone in our industry since I had Lookin At Lucky first (Preakness), Super Saver second (KY Derby) and Drosselmeyer fifth (Belmont), nailing the Triple Crown in my early book top five! Furthermore, I had Eskendereya ranked at #7 a month before he freaked in the Fountain of Youth - and after a poor ninth place finish in the BC Juvenile (save that thought).
So I'm banking on the fact that I am more of an even year kind of guy -- here goes the 2012 Derby inaugural top 10 list that I will be updating about every 3 weeks...
1) The Godfather (errr.... El Padrino): First off, you've gotta love the name. I'm an actual Godfather six times over to various nieces and nephews and my wife can quote the movie like it's nobody's business ("Luco Brossi sleeps with the fishes" or "Leave the gun, take the cannoli"). Looking at Pulpit's progeny record on www.bloodhorse.com it's shocking that this big name sire has so few millionaires. Particulary, not all that much success with his sophomores (i.e. Pyro, Corinthian, Essense of Dubai) with the fluke Ice Box running into the Kentucky Derby exacta in 2010 on a wet track being the lone exception. Pulpit is seven years older than his son and the "it" sire Tapit, yet the son has as many North American millionaires as his pappa, including BC Juvenile champ Hansen (um-bop). And to add insult to injury, Tapit's stud fee is nearly three times that of the elder statesman (still both are young by sire standards, though). Imagine how Pulpit feels at family barbecues when Tapit rolls up hours late in his Jaguar with booze and smoke billowing from his ride, "Yo dad... I need another hundo for my date tonight -- taking Smart Strike's daughter out to the movies." I say Pulpit has had quite enough and will rectify the situation with his first Derby winner. You've gotta love the Giant's Causeway dam completing this powerful breeding nick pattern.
2) Creative Causeway: This is a beautiful grey blob (props to Silver Charm) of Giant's Causeway who has done little wrong in his five starts at two, including three Grade 1's and a Grade 2. This guy has so much back class at this young age and has duplicated the juvenile race pattern of 2YO AND 3YO Eclipse Champion, Lookin At Lucky, with nearly identical success. He was given about two months off after his show finish in the BC Juvenile by conditioner Mike Harrington and has returned smartly to the worktab. As Harry Caray would say (another grey blob)... "I smell trouble here, Sherri."
3) Algorithms: Being of German descent and a tax accountant by trade, I respect this name. Dictionary.com defines this noun as, "a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor." Absolutely exploded in his first start beyond a sprint distance and being by Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance mare this mo-fo should want to run all day long. Clearly is poised to be the next "Big E" - a budding star at Gulfstream from the Pletcher barn - IF he can stay healthy. Three starts and three convincing wins. Not only that, but when a horse bred for distance is as fast as this mo-fo at five and six furlongs, you have a top Derby candidate on your hands (see Lil E. Tee).
Frankly, I could stop my Derby top 10 at this point as confident as I am in these three selections. I'm looking down at about two dozen more names on my yellow pad with most of them containing a line struck through their names after viewing race replays or looking over race charts. But for the love of the game I will press on with as many names as my faith allows me to put to writing...
4) Prospective: I love me some Malibu and Coke Zero. Oh, what I meant to say is that I love Malibu Moon as a sire. Especially with the cross to Awesome Again, who I believe is an underrated sire and could very well follow in his father's (Deputy Minister) footsteps to become an excellent broodmare sire. This guy has a double dose of Seattle Slew coursing through his veins and if you didn't notice, the Slew swept the Triple Crown back in 1977. Some will say that he does not fit with the top 3YO's since he finished up the track (13th) in the BC Juvenile, but please refer to where Eskendereya placed in my earlier paragraph. Obviously, colts at this age change quite a bit as their skeletal systems continue to develop and I'm willing to chalk that up to a bad day at the office.
Speaking of chalk, most of you are probably wondering where the top two finishers of the BC Juvenile will rank, Hansen and Union Rags. Well hold that thought, because I will have to see one or both win at 9 furlongs before I put these speed oriented bred horse on my list of colts, geldings or fillies that could actually WIN a Derby (and/or Triple Crown race). I'll eat my words if I must, but at this moment Union Rags reminds me quite a bit of Uncle Mo (finally proved that he was NOT a distance horse in the BC Classic). Not only that, at least Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile win was scintillating visually and time-wise, while the 2011 edition leaves a lot to be desired with the positive split times of each quarter mile. Thus, I'm going with horses who could threaten the winner's circle at 10 furlongs, not "hang on" for third.
5) Out of Bounds: I'm a little nervous about this pick, but that's why they call it horse racing, right, right?? His dosage index is in the vicinity of 6.00, but he has a nice stride to him and good running style of laying off the pace but always within striking distance. I hear some chatter that his sire Discreet Cat could be the next great miler sire, just like his dad Forestry struck with Shackleford last year. His Sham Stakes win against Baffert's Secret Circle (who had the speed edge) was a classic cat-like move of sitting and pouncing in the stretch. Meooowwww.
6) Dullahan: This guy had no chance in the BC Juvenile when they were walking through slow mid-race fractions, but still managed a nice rally from 13th and last to get up for 4th. Versatile enough that his connections can't yet commit to dirt or turf, thus his 2YO season was a work in progress. After two full months off (I like this training strategy - Victory Gallop came back strong at Oaklawn Park after a few months off) he's just now back in training at Gulfstream and may only get two starts prior to The Derby. Could be the fresh horse to take the bouquet of roses much like Animal Kingdom last year.
7) Mr. Bowling: Impressive Lecomte Stakes winner at Fair Grounds is sired by a new son of Gone West that also has Atigun firing at Oaklawn Park. Was a beaten favorite finishing third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois last fall under Calvin Borel. Working very fast at the Gentilly Avenue track, which is encouraging for a distance laden horse. Larry Jones is known for his magic with the fillies, but maybe this is his ticket to Derby day.
8) Fed Biz: Here's another Giant's Causeway (embarrassment of riches) colt out of a Wild Again mare. For those that don't recall, Wild Again was the winner of a hotly contested inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic race. He proved valuable as a sire although he hasn't been in the press in quite a while. He was euthanized in 2008 at age 28 after servicing many mares in meritorious service at Three Chimney Farms. Though only having a maiden score under his belt, Baffert has him cranked up on the west coast for a big debut soon.
9) Najjaar: Dan Peitz has had his fair share of quality horses in his day and is very high on this son of Jazil for Shadwell Stable. Took a while to break his maiden but exits a key race at Oaklawn Park on January 14 where a couple have come back to get their picture taken as well. If he gets some pace to set things up for him it could prove to be what elevates him to the top of his division on any given day.
10) Reckless Jerry: Last year it was Oklahoma based Donnie Von Hemel who was dancing for joy with the success of Caleb's Posse and Alternation. This year it could be fellow Oklahoman Toby Keith's turn to strike it big on the national stage. Reckless Jerry ran well in the midwest last fall and came out sharp in a close second while racing wide to Junebugred (Corinthian) in the Smarty Jones Stakes on opening weekend. His sire, Cactus Ridge (Hennessy), also was raced by Keith's Dream Walkin Farms and scorched the track from 4 1/2 furlongs to one mile before he was injured undefeated after his Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity score. His son Reckless Jerry has revenge on his mind, much like Toby when he sang, "we'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American way..." in his Red, White and Blue tribute tour.
January 16, 2012
Eclipse Award voters get it wrong with Animal Kingdom
Ask a general sports fan what's the best race in the world and nearly all will respond "Kentucky Derby." Ask them to name just one other race and they usually can't do it. Horsemen are supposed to know better, though. I thought most horsemen realized that while the KY Derby is the day that gets all the attention (and rightly so), the Breeders' Cup is where champions are crowned.
How Animal Kingdom beat out both Caleb's Posse and Shackleford (who ran one-two in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile against older horses) simply defies logic. Other than his Kentucky Derby upset, AK boasts a modest Grade 3 win in Turfway's Spiral Stakes on polytrack (arguably the weakest of any Derby preps) and a narrow loss to Shackleford in the Preakness. While Shackleford was the most consistent runner over the course of the year, his seconditis likely cost him the vote, finishing second in three Grade 1 races, including the BC Dirt Mile to the runaway winner Caleb's Posse. Both these sophomores had a grueling 10 race season, yet were still at the top of their game come Breeders' Cup time, especially hard to do for young horses.
But Caleb's Posse really shined in key moments, denying Uncle Mo the Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at historic Saratoga after winning another Grade 2 sprint there. While he certainly was not at his best running long, he did start hot at Oaklawn Park by winning the Smarty Jones Stakes and placing second in the Grade 2 Rebel to The Factor and held his own in some regional Derbies, also winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.
But instead, a horse who lost his first race of the season to a horse named Powhatan County and who won only two of five races over about a three month span will be voted the best 3YO of 2011? The numbers just are not at all there to support this decision. All this talk about how horses don't run enough for fans to get engaged is B-S as long as our very own "media" reward these one-hit wonders. The vote was at least close at 114-111, but certainly that doesn't take the pain away from the McNeill or Von Hemel families, who could have very well received two awards for best sprinter and 3YO male, but instead go home empty handed. Makes you wonder about the sincerity of these voters and whether there is a Kentucky bias that works against lesser known horsemen. He might not have fit in the right "peg," but to me Caleb's Posse was certainly the best of his class in 2011, hands down. And perhaps he'll get another crack at it with a more focused sprint season in 2012!
How Animal Kingdom beat out both Caleb's Posse and Shackleford (who ran one-two in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile against older horses) simply defies logic. Other than his Kentucky Derby upset, AK boasts a modest Grade 3 win in Turfway's Spiral Stakes on polytrack (arguably the weakest of any Derby preps) and a narrow loss to Shackleford in the Preakness. While Shackleford was the most consistent runner over the course of the year, his seconditis likely cost him the vote, finishing second in three Grade 1 races, including the BC Dirt Mile to the runaway winner Caleb's Posse. Both these sophomores had a grueling 10 race season, yet were still at the top of their game come Breeders' Cup time, especially hard to do for young horses.
But Caleb's Posse really shined in key moments, denying Uncle Mo the Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at historic Saratoga after winning another Grade 2 sprint there. While he certainly was not at his best running long, he did start hot at Oaklawn Park by winning the Smarty Jones Stakes and placing second in the Grade 2 Rebel to The Factor and held his own in some regional Derbies, also winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.
But instead, a horse who lost his first race of the season to a horse named Powhatan County and who won only two of five races over about a three month span will be voted the best 3YO of 2011? The numbers just are not at all there to support this decision. All this talk about how horses don't run enough for fans to get engaged is B-S as long as our very own "media" reward these one-hit wonders. The vote was at least close at 114-111, but certainly that doesn't take the pain away from the McNeill or Von Hemel families, who could have very well received two awards for best sprinter and 3YO male, but instead go home empty handed. Makes you wonder about the sincerity of these voters and whether there is a Kentucky bias that works against lesser known horsemen. He might not have fit in the right "peg," but to me Caleb's Posse was certainly the best of his class in 2011, hands down. And perhaps he'll get another crack at it with a more focused sprint season in 2012!
December 29, 2011
Oaklawn Park preview - the other "Spa"
Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, Caleb’s Posse, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Summer Bird, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Azeri (pictured with Mike Smith) - a who's who of Eclipse champions over the last decade all put their indelible stamp on the one mile oval framed by blooming dogwoods. Before that there were champions the likes of Althea, Sunny's Halo, Temperence Hill, Lil E. Tee, Paseana, Bayakoa, Tiffany Lass and Cigar. Over the past decade, discussions about Oaklawn Park begin and end with the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Read more on my HRN blog @ http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/12thCrown/Oaklawn_Park_preview_the_other_Spa_123
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