Derby 139 Wrap - Pace makes the race

You've heard me say it at least once each year in a post, "pace makes the race." You correctly guess the pace scenario and you have a huge advantage in cashing tickets at the window. I could not have been further off from my pace analysis than this year's Derby since I expected a moderate to slow pace based on previous split times. And my early bias against Orb's pre-Florida Derby races also cost me from having him in my win spot in exotic bets, but I would never have included Golden Soul for second so I don't feel so bad. The excuses (err... explanations) are as follows;

1) Rogue speed - Palace Malice. Todd Pletcher will tell you it was the addition of blinkers that caused PM to run away from Mike Smith with suicidal fractions. Mike Smith will tell you he broke on a flyer and couldn't restrain him. Conspiracy bloggers will tell you it was Pletcher instructing Smith to be the rabbit to set up Revolutionary's late run. But this would compromise Verrazano's chances and would mean pissing off (and possibly being fired by) his best clients, Dogwood Stable and Lets Go Racing Stable. So that is not plausible either. Perhaps it is a little of each of the above that sent Palace Malice on a suicide mission but the fact that he still finished mid-pack beaten "only" 13 lengths back (Falling Sky was officially 53 lengths behind) tells me that somebody screwed this horse out of a top 3 finish with those insane fractions. And it also depleted his racing tank such that he will not run back in the Preakness in two weeks, which could have been his best spot.

2) Sealed "sloppy" track. If any of you have ever been down near the track when it is sealed you will recall the dense packing and thud of hooves when horses travel over the off track. It actually allows for quicker foot action and speed in the short-run. Think of running across a grassy field versus track - no give in the track allows for quicker times whereas your foot sinks into the ground when running cross country. But in the long-run it creates more fatigue on a horse. I would say the 10 furlong distance of The Derby qualifies as long-run having a detrimental effect on any horse close to the front on Saturday. Bottom line is that 4 of the top 5 placed-horses only had one horse beat after 6 furlongs, and that was Java's War who missed the break and was out of contention from the start. The lone exception was Normandy Invasion, who was in 6th place only 5 lengths off the pace. Look at his DRF chart and you will note that any typical year he is in the winning position at that point of the race but instead he finishes a tiring 4th. But certainly this was an atypically run Derby.

3) Palace Malice's breakaway speed caused a chain reaction of the other speed-oriented horses (Goldencents, Falling Sky, Verrazano, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday) chasing him down and kept the swift fractions going each successive quarter mile until the race unraveled at the mile point and final 10 furlong time. 22.2, 22.3, 24.2, 26.1, 26.3 split times for a moderate final time of 2:02.89. Historical relevance; In 2001 Point Given was also 3 1/2 lengths behind a wicked 1:09.25 six furlong pace that watched him labor home in 5th position in the 2nd fastest Kentucky Derby in history, only behind "Big Red" in 1973. Point Given was clearly superior in this group and proved it by winning each Grade I race before and after the Derby (including an easy Preakness score and 12 length Belmont romp over Derby winner Monarchos) before being injured later in the year and retired to stud duty. I'm not saying Normandy is in the same league as this horse but it proves how significant the pace can factor into an outcome.

4) Trip line. While Orb was officially 6 wide into the stretch, the replay showed that he came away from the gates clean and was never impeded while racing on the outside (even though his head looked like the grill of a 4X4 Jeep after going muddin'). Compare that to Revolutionary, "bumped, waited 1/4 pole," Normandy Invasion, "steadied start, weakened" and my long-shot pick Will Take Charge, "5 wide run, checked 3/16 pole" who certainly got the worst trip of all as he was traveling in stride with Orb on the turn until that damn Verrazano drifted into his path as he was tiring. Now I'm not implying that Orb is not a worthy winner by any means and I am very pleased that "Shug" won his elusive Derby, being a Kentuckian. I am just stating that he got the winning trip and it may not come as easy in Baltimore on May 18th, which makes it an intriguing betting race - albeit nowhere near the odds of Kentucky. So if you are like me in trying to get back a little dough, this is NOT the race to "double down!"

Fortunately, many of the also-rans (Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Vyjack, Will Take Charge) along with 4 of the top 6 finishers at Churchill Downs will get one more chance in the Preakness and hope for better conditions. And there are two new shooters that will come into the Preakness a bit fresh in Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert) and Departing (Al Stall). Speaking of which, if you believe in "key races" as I do and is particularly useful among early 3YO races, the one thing I was right about is how good the crop in Louisiana was this year (in spite of slower speed figures). Four of the top six Derby finishers came out of a Louisiana prep race and another went on to win the Illinois Derby! And if you think this trend holds up, you've got to look at Departing, who finished just 3 lengths behind Revolutionary and Mylute in the LA Derby and in front of Golden Soul, who shredded a lot of Derby exacta, trifecta and superfecta tickets when he rolled home second at 35-1.

I will have another post out just prior to the Preakness, but I felt I needed to "explain myself" after my disappointing predictions. After hitting all top five finishers last year (though not in exact order) I felt my 3 for 5 this year left a little to be desired. I hope to fare better at Pimlico and feel good about a couple of price horses.

Hope you enjoyed Kentucky Derby 139, truly a race unlike any other!
E

Derby Day hunches, that damn Bob Costas and E's final Top 10 list

What a delightful Derby morning in Dallas, TX!  Had a nice 5 furlong (err, 5 mile) gallop with my Tawny dog who has a stride similar to Itsmyluckyday - she likes to go to the front!  Too bad the Louisville weather is much worse with rain about 80% likely throughout the late afternoon hours. Although, unless the track gets one good downpour it could still be listed as "fast" since that Churchill sand and clay base track can absorb a good amount of water. The only horse of mine that would definitely be affected is long-shot Will Take Charge, who ran a dull race in the sloppy Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in February. On the flip-side, Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary and Vyjack have had victories with higher than average speed times on "off" tracks. Now on to the picks!

My last and "official" Derby Top 10 shakes out as follows, with post positions and day 1 closing odds;

1) #14 Verrazano 11-1 

2) #3 Revolutionary 5-1

3) #5 Normandy Invasion 8-1

4) #10 Palace Malice 25-1

5) #16 Orb 6-1

6) #17 Will Take Charge 31-1

7) #12 Itsmyluckyday 11-1

8) #19 Java's War 22-1

9) #8 Goldencents 5-1

10) #9 Overanalyze 14-1

I see some major odds discrepancies, such as the obvious- #14 being totally disrespected at 11-1!  In addition to juicy win odds, those who like this horse should top him in a $1 exacta wheel and pray for a long-shot. That bet costs $18 with the defection of Black Onyx and if he truly goes off as the 5th choice would pay a $200 minimum (same 11-1 range return) and could pay closer to $1,000 if a 25-1 shot or greater rolls in for second.

So my famous "toss" horse this year is #8 Goldencents. First a little history, as hard as it is to pick a winner from a 20ish horse field, I've been singling out a short horse each year. Granted, some years I have been aided by  bad trips (Gemologist was my short last year at 9-1, 16th place finish), but the only horse who has burned me was Ice Box when he flew up for 2nd place to Super Saver (my #2 pick) over the slop in 2010. Earlier in the week, I was hoping to short Orb (as M-L favorite, this would be the equivalent of having shorted sub-prime mortgages in 2008 if he runs poorly!). But as much as I was unimpressed with his slower win times at Gulfstream Park (these horses disappoint more than the Wood Memorial), he has a few things going for him. He reminds me of Fu-Peg in 2000 in that he is the most gorgeous horse in the field and he has made a swooping closing move into a slow pace - a big plus for a closer that they CAN do more. I am encouraged that he seems to spook easily, so I'll put him in 2nd - 4th in my big superfecta bet but hope he melts in the paddock with 150,000 screaming drunk Kentuckians.

I'm shorting Goldencents this year, even though if I am wrong I can see him actually winning the dang race due to his whopping 105 Beyer speed figure in the Santa Anita Derby. He is a true speed horse with the fastest split times by far, so I can't see him rating effectively (although IHA burned me last year by coming further back in Derby). Further, some of you may have heard of the "bounce" theory where a horse runs a much faster than typical race and his next start is flat - also known as Ragozin # progression. I just can't see him duplicate that last race and actually those horses were nothing like the best from the Wood or Louisiana Derbies this year. That's it folks, take it to the bank! 

Other observations; Mylute and Frac Daddy seem to be way overbet due to their Kentucky connections and 60 minutes Rosie - ugghhh!  Whereas, Palace Malice with Hall of Famer Mike Smith are getting no respect at 25-1. Did anyone notice what Mikey did yesterday in the Oaks?  Exactly, rang the damn bell with Princess of Sylmar at 38-1. He is the best big money rider in the country, bar none, period, exclamation point!!! My goal is to have a good enough horse for him to ride before he retires - he's getting up there. No disrespect to Calvin "Boo Boo" Borel, but I'd take Smith at 25-1 over Calvin at 5-1 in some backup bets to exploit these odds.

Kids, I hope you have a Fantabulous Derby now. Now that my "official" work is done, I can sit back, relax and enjoy the greatest 6 hours of pre-Derby coverage (other than that damn Bob Costas - he and Rosie Napravnik in the same interview may make me puke!). But then we will get to experience the truly greatest two minutes in sports.  Whoooooo, brother (shout out to Ronaldo and Rick Flair)!

Let's Roll....

E

 

Memorial to Storm Cat - influential U.S. sire who died at age 30 last week

Sad news came out last Wednesday that leading U.S. sire of sires Storm Cat was euthanized due to debilitating effects of old age at 30 (approximately 90 in human terms). The grandson of the immortal Northern Dancer out of a Secretariat mare (hence, "Big Red" was known as a top broodmare sire) had been pensioned from stud duty (i.e. retired from the "strenuous" life of sex and leisure) for the last several years at the original owner's farm - William Young (Overbrook Farm). I have copied the incredible stats below, but most impressive is how he infused additional speed and juvenile success into American breeding through sons Hennessy and Stormy Atlantic yet also passed along some stamina through sons Giant's Causeway, Harlan and Tale of the Cat. Not only the impressive sire line, but he is becoming quite the broodmare sire with top sires Speightstown and Bodemeister - last year's top classics performer, to his credit.  Speaking of Classics, Storm Cat will be represented in tomorrow's Derby by five contenders, most notably by his great-grandson Into Mischief with #8 Goldencents and #20 Vyjack.

Storm Cat was a relatively small stallion who produced medium build foals but they were/are known to be feisty S.O.B.'s. I know - my Stable bought a son of Henny Hughes who is a cross to Storm Cat at the third generation. One other special note is that as good as Storm Cat proved to be in the end, he was doubted when his first crop of foals came through the auction ring much smaller than average for top sires. There was one Texas cowgirl in the Keeneland sales pavilion back in 1990 who liked what she saw - offset knees and all - and ended up buying a filly to be named Joy's Baby and recorded the very first of 180 stakes winners for the sire, over 100 of those in Graded company! That cowgirl is Diamond D Ranch's very own (and current Saturday Racing Stable bloodstock advisor) Caroline Dodwell. Please note the amazing stats below and follow the link to read more about his stellar stud career and lasting impressions. 

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truenicks/archive/2013/04/24/storm-cat-sire-of-a-lifetime.aspx        

Storm Cat facts 1983, dk. b. or br. h., Storm Bird—Terlingua, by Secretariat

Breeder: W. T. Young Storage, Inc.

Owner: W. T. Young

Trainer: Jonathan Sheppard

Race record: 8-4-3-0, $570,610

Stakes wins: 1985 Young America S. (G1)

Stakes placings: 2nd in 1985 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

Honors at stud: Leading sire (1999, 2000); leading broodmare sire (2012); 

leading juvenile sire(1992, 1993, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004)

Foals: 1,452 Starters: 1,110 Winners: 807 Wins: 2,340

Stakes winners: 180 (12%)

Graded/group stakes winners: 108

Earnings: $128,085,381

Average earnings per starter: $115,392

Wednesday means 2 things; post position draw and mint julep recipe

Perhaps rivaled only by Monday of Derby week, Wednesday is very popular in my household. There are two things that happen late every afternoon of this day each year - Post positions are drawn in a commercialized one hour process and that evening I stew my select batch of mint julep syrup. There is nothing simple about the equal parts water-sugar base.  It begins with bountiful leaves of legitimate Bluegrass mint (complements of the Houston's who transported the original strand from Paducah, KY) which gives the base a nice hue of green after the syrup comes to a boil. After cooling for approximately one hour, the mixologist is allowed ONE mint julep sample before placing the seal of approval on Batch 139. The pewter julep chalice is cleaned with care in hopes that Derby Day will be here. The sampling is occurring precisely as I pen this handicapping commentary, so let's get on with it before I start missing my keys...

Nothing spectacular came out of the post positions and odds announcement and the only adverse impact for legitimate threats would be Vyjack (15-1) #20 far outside post and Oxbow (30-1) down in the #2 hole, which should prompt Gary Stevens to show more speed (which Lukas had intended to do regardless). The top contenders drew anywhere between the prime 8 to 16 posts with the exception of Revolutionary towards the rail in #3. But with his lagging running style and agile maneuvering, this will enable him to save ground early and weave through tiring horses on the far turn. So what about the speed scenario that I promised yesterday?  Here goes...

My estimate of the likely pacesetters based on their recent preps split times (nothing at a mile or under would be relevant at this distance) are as follows, in order; Goldencents, Falling Sky, Giant Finish, Lines of Battle, Verrazano and Itsmyluckyday. This is a very rare year in that I can't point to a single "junk" speed horse - a horse that is wicked fast but only entered in The Derby because they were a legit sprinter and the owners had Derby fever (ala Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Trinniberg last year). This is likely due to the new point system created by Churchill Downs this season to ensure that legitimate two-turn horses in top form close to Derby day get in. What this means is that even though some horses will try to grab a few seconds of fame (perhaps Giant Finish and Falling Sky fall into this category), they have not shown the type of speed that would prompt the half mile time to be sub :47 flat. In contrast, last year when Trinniberg pushed the speedy Bodemeister early the half went in :45.39 and 6 panels in 1:09.80. I'll Have Another was about 8 lengths off this suicidal pace at the half mile point and the 3rd and 4th placer finishers were 13 and 18 lengths back.

This year I want to use more speed oriented horses in the top slots of my trifecta/superfecta bets and I will get odds since many of the top candidates are deep closers (i.e. Orb, Revolutionary, Java's War, Normandy Invasion, Mylute). Thus, my official WIN pick will be the horse some are doubting because of his natural speed, Verrazano (4-1). The misconception could be that he was only 2nd at the 4 furlong mark in the Wood Memorial due to the c-r-a-w-l-i-n-g pace of :49.62 seconds and he was still 2 lengths back, meaning he ran his first 4 furlongs in about 50 seconds. Does this sound like a speed only horse to you? Absolutely not!

Todd Pletcher has been brutally criticized by the media (namely Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post and of Beyer speed figure fame) for having only one winner in 30+ Derby starters and that was when Super Saver came further off the pace in 2010 to win than he had in previous races. Even if Todd Pletcher can't recall this simple fact I guarantee you that Johnny V. doesn't want to jeopardize his 10% cut of the $2MM purse by using up his horse early. Especially since his other mount option in this race was the actual morning line favorite and closer, Orb (7-2). Along with Itsmyluckyday (who I believe to have distance limitations), these two horses seem to have the best tactical speed and if they choose to rate off the pace on Saturday they can be wearing the blanket of Kroger roses (which they will begin tomorrow stitching together the 554 red roses).

Finally, while still trying to whittle down my large exotic tickets, one horse that I like more each time I scan the charts in #5 Normandy Invasion (12-1).  Not only would this guy be the patriotic choice with that special name, how wild is it that both his dam and damsire carry the name "Boston" (Boston Lady and Boston Harbor) and we are just over one week removed from the tragedies of their marathon race?! Tapit is known more as a miler sire but his speed figures are higher in his two 9 furlong races and his running style could help him last in that final furlong. I know who you Red Sox fans will be rooting for on Saturday!

Good luck!

Handicapping Lessons from recent Derbies

Mark Twain was credited with the expression, “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” But let’s not draw back to 100+ year-old statistics when refreshing our views leading into this year’s Derby (no winner failed to run as a 2YO since Apollo, must have three Derby preps, prep race needs to be within 4 weeks of Derby, dosage index must be under 4.0, yadda, yadda.). Rather, let’s reflect on the “new normal” of the last few years and try to find the Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents and Revolutionary of previous years and see how that race turned out for similar horses (somewhat of a misnomer since horses are “wild creatures” as my wife reminds me when ours do not win!).

IMHO, the 2013 Derby is shaping up much like 2009, 2010 and 2011, when there was debate as to the superior horse (which Bodemeister clearly was leading into last year’s Derby). Strangely enough, the ’09 and ’10 editions of The Derby were run over a sloppy (sealed) track, which possibly could have distorted the outcomes although the results seem plausible based on the respective pace scenarios. Though a slight chance of rain is in store for Friday's Kentucky Oaks, it is very likely to be a fast track come late Saturday afternoon. The favorites in those three years were Friesan Fire at 4-1 (speed), Lookin at Lucky at 6-1 (stalker) and Dialed In at 5-1 (closer), respectively.  None of these favorites came close to hitting the board, although Lucky was most compromised by his #1 post position and rough trip. Conclusion; betting AGAINST the favorite generally works in the 20 horse field.

All you will hear about the next few days leading up to the race is which horses seemed to "move well over the track" by a few bonehead clockers who have prejudices in which horses they favor just like you and I and tend to wrap their influence around the logical top choices.  Let’s review final workouts from previous years: Friesan Fire had a freaky 57.4 second five furlong tuneup but was bumped at the start and never seemed to get in rhythm in a stalking trip, only beating one horse at the finish. That year’s unlucky loser, Pioneerof the Nile had a final work of 1:01 “average” work.  In 2010 Lookin at Lucky had a 1:00.4 “average” work and also was jostled at the start to trail early and lost all chance even though he finished 6th.  That year’s winner Super Saver was reported to be the best mover over the Churchill surface shooting four furlongs in 47.2, which led to this speedball going off as the 2nd choice even though he hadn’t won in two starts before.  Finally, in 2011 Dialed In turned in most of his timed works in Florida before shipping to Louisville but was reported to gallop strong leading into the race (similar to Itsmyluckyday this year). Meanwhile, Animal Kingdom had one of the fastest 6 panel workouts in 1:13 flat to prove he could handle a dirt surface in his first attempt.  Conclusion; workouts are INCONCLUSIVE since most horses are said to work “great” and half of these run well and the others do not. My opinion is that workouts are most important for maiden races, not graded stakes races!

Looking over recent Derby outcomes, the best place to be after a half mile (4 furlongs) is between the coveted 3rd to 7th positions in the second flight of horses, preferably on the outside to avoid kick-back and traffic. This stalking position is exactly where 6 of the most recent 10 Derby winners came from. Because of this relatively open field (even the top jocks had trouble deciding on their Derby mount – more on that later in the week), it should set up the odds for lukewarm favorites (5-1 range) and cause more wagering dispersion which leads to monster payoffs - assuming one of the superfecta horses are greater than 25-1. Many horses could be considered adaptable enough to fit this profile, depending on post positions and how the field settles into the first turn. I will point out that in 2010 Super Saver had shown much more speed in his Derby preps but was able to lay 6th in The Derby thanks to the skilled hands of pilot Calvin Borel. But based on past performances alone the most likely stalkers would be Overanalyze, Vyjack, Will Take Charge, Itsmyluckyday, Frac Daddy, Palace Malice, Oxbow and Charming Kitten. Conclusion; be sure to play whichever horse you THINK will be in this sweet spot when the dust settles. Look to jockey and trainer quotes for clues, but avoid the analysts "predictions" as even savvy guys like Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss get it wrong quite often.

Finally, last year I learned a painful (and expensive) lesson that there is no substitute for winning.  I really liked both Santa Anita Derby colts but preferred Creative Cause in my tickets (behind my top pick Bodemeister) since he was getting to I'll Have Another down the stretch and I though the extra furlong would aid his "cause." But jockeys set up their timing in moves much differently from race to race and a typical mistake is to simply play the horses closing the best at the very end. Conclusion; I prefer Verrazano over Normandy Invasion and Vyjack, Revolutionary over Mylute, Overanalyze over the entire Ark. Derby field.

I will save my speed scenario until after I can evaluate the post position draw, which will be held Wednesday afternoon. Good luck with your picks!

Taking a stand against...

I am going to put this out there early in the week so that in the event my horse savvy friends think I am throwing my money away, they will have time to convince me otherwise.  

It is hard to pick one winner from a field of 20 horses. I mean, it is real hard when it comes down to it. Based on these young horses past performances and the fact many are still going through growth spurts and learning pains, it's damn near impossible to settle on one. So often in years past, I have an easier time whittling down the list before I can ultimately settle on a winner. Perhaps it is due to my "against the grain" mentality, but I really like finding flaws in a horse as more and more people jump on the bandwagon. And this year I have already reached my tipping point with Orb.

Yes, Orb, the closer who looks and acts and smells (presumably) like a stone cold race horse. I'm tossing him.  You are what?  That's right -- he's out, Jerry!  Why in the hell would you be throwing out the most blue-blooded, consistent closer in the field when he's gobbling up the Churchill Downs track like a fat man at a Cici's pizza buffet, you ask?  Let me use as exhibits A, B, C and D the damning quotes from his alleged "supporters";

A) Orb's trainer, Shug McGaughey on his recent stellar workout in company (where do all these nicknames for trainers come from, anyway? Shug, Chip, Rudy...): "He has a tendency to make the lead and then think he's done enough, so we wanted him to finish on by that horse." 

B) Orb's jockey, Joel Rosario: "He can get a little nervous in the gate but he's getting better each time." Is this what you want to see from the likely 5-1 2nd choice - "nervous... improvement."  If I wanted to bet on a nut-case at the starting gate we should bring back Quality Road or Coronado's Quest (another McGaughey trained horse who couldn't even run in the Derby because he was too flaky - can we see a pattern here?!) 

C) Orb's previous jockey John Velazquez: "This horse sucks, I'd rather ride Verrazano so I can actually win the Derby instead of being an also-ran." Okay, Johnny did not actually SAY this, but you know he meant it but just didn't want to hurt the owners feelings.

D) Orb's majority owner Stuart Janney, III (spoken with my bottom jaw pushed out like a Family Guy character): "Is there a horse race this Saturday? I haven't even paid attention since I'm the big-shot chairman of Bessemer Trust Company and the federal stock market is higher than it's ever been. Why wait for two minutes to collect the measly $2 million purse money when I made more than that every second last Friday when the club boys and I were shorting gold. Ha ha ha ha ha ha, now where is my mint julep?"

Okay, so quotes C and D were make-believe, but you get the point. Back to the facts, two of Orb's three Gulfstream Park wins in 2013 were less than spectacular at 9 furlongs posting BRIS speed figures of 89 and 97. His best effort came in the 1 1/16th miles Fountain of Youth where he closed off a blistering early pace (45.2 half mile) en route to passing Violence by a half length while recording his career best speed figure of 102. If he is actually improving from each start as everyone gushes, why did his BRIS # drop 5 points in his last race against better competition as the distance increased? It was a very mediocre time which can be deceiving when a horse wins easily against weak competition, which I believe that was. 

Finally, Florida horses have disappointed in Kentucky over the last five years with the exceptions of Ice Box closing in the slop for 2nd in 2010 and Big Brown's PED year of 2008. Personally, I was burned by Dialed In two years ago - another false closer. I'll watch all this money of the so-called experts flow to Orb and follow the true expert (Johnny V.) with my money towards Verrazano. Everyone wants to bet a closer yet fewer true closers win that stalking horses, due to the jostling for position, kick-back, blocked paths, etc. So why accept a closer that is likely to be co-favorite in the 5-1 range when so many others could just as easily run into the exotics? May not happen, but that's how I see it.

Talk Derby to Me,
E

Derby Week 139 Willkommen!

Since I have just returned from a North Texas German Fest, I want to welcome you to Kentucky Derby Week hundertneununddreißig (better known as #139 to non-Deutschlanders)!  This year's bunch of sophomores have seemed to morph into a group of "haves" and "have-nots."  A lofty few are repeat winners this winter/spring; Orb, Verrazano, Revolutionary and Goldencents. But the majority have seemed to play supporting actor roles to the aforementioned headliners. This long list includes Vyjack, Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow, Palace Malice, Frac Daddy, Falling Sky, Mylute, Charming Kitten, Normandy Invasion and Java's War (although a recent win over a synthetic track). The final group has been lightly raced and unproven against top competition; Overanalyze, Black Onyx, Will Take Charge, Governor Charlie, Lines of Battle, Winning Cause.

Fortunately, I zeroed in on the right two horses early in the spring and have watched both Verrazano and Revolutionary make me look like an experienced "railbird" race after race. The tough part now is deciding on only one for my official pick since they could not have more opposite running styles leading into the 10 furlong affair. And while conventional wisdom would point to the closer, my methods are anything but conventional. I will wait and share my picks late in the week as I would hate to be accused of corrupting any of your personal choices!

I have also come across a true sleeper pick that I will share after the post position draw that could really fuel a monster exotics ticket. Man, there's nothing like the anticipation of Kentucky Derby week so let's make the most of each day this week!  Check back tomorrow for more Derby history and later in the week for a tribute to recently deceased sire, Storm Cat.

To help find YOUR Derby horse, I am attaching a couple of my favorite references...

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts

http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2013_contenders

KY Derby Top 10 list - March 16th update

1) Verrazano  -  More Than Ready by Giant’s Causeway: It was a risky move putting him on top of my inaugural list but he redeemed my faith by easily winning the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby over a respectable field. Java's War was a long-shot runner up in that race but has a fair amount of back class as a 2YO. I would have preferred seeing Johnny V. wait a bit longer rather than taking the lead after only 3 furlongs but he seemed ratable early and a jock is supposed to take the lead if they know they have the best horse. Waiting for the Wood Memorial for a race that should be suited perfect for this speed oriented type. We'll see how the pace scenario shapes up for the big one, but I hope he gets a little dirt in his face in New York.

2) Revolutionary – War Pass out of a G1 winning AP Indy mare. Still hasn't raced after his swooping last to first victory at Aqueduct in early February.  Pletcher is handling him with kid gloves opting to wait for the long stretch of the Louisiana Derby in two weeks where he must run 1st or 2nd just to make the big dance. I'm not crazy about this race pattern but I do think he has immense talent. Cherokee Run sire line is known to be short on stamina, but it has produced some Yonaguska runners that have carried their speed up to the Classic distances (Musket Man). His damside is loaded with stamina via Seattle Slew and a cross of Hoist The Flag, resulting in a low 3.00 dosage index (historic threshold says under 4.0 has the best chance).

3) Oxbow – Awesome Again by Cee’s Tizzy mare.  Nearly identical breeding as Paynter last year who proved to have Grade I class.  Awesome Again may be one of the most underrated sires out there as he has quietly sired four Breeders’ Cup winners, the best being Horse of the Year Ghostzapper (but also runner-up, Game on Dude).  After a troubled 4th place finish in Fair Grounds Risen Star stakes, he redeemed himself with a gutsy Rebel Stakes, where he was nipped on the wire after again being wide on the first turn. The most consistent runner in this bunch has the tactical speed needed to establish position early in these longer races. It was ironic that even though Bob Baffert got all the praise heading into the Rebel Stakes, D. Wayne Lukas ran one-two proving that the old master may have a Derby bullet still left.

4) Flashback – Tapit colt by a Mr. Greeley mare = SPEED. I even more question his 10 furlong ability after that fade in deep stretch in the 1 1/16th mile San Felipe, but most pundits will automatically dismiss this horse after his first loss.  He pressed insane fractions (sub :46 and 1:10 splits) and still held 2nd place from a deep closer, so I think that race was huge in his career development.  Appears to have the most raw talent of any in this bunch, so we’ll see if he’s a true miler or able to carry his speed into the Classics like a War Emblem and Bodemeister - previous Baffert speedballs.

5) Vyjack - Into Mischief by Stravinsky mare: New addition to the list after his Gotham Stakes win at Aqueduct. I had held his front running style against him, but then he circles the field from dead last in his last start, which gives me more of a reason to like this guy. Into Mischief is a hot new sire this year who has plenty of stamina influence. The trainer, Rudy Rodriguez, was just suspended over a month for his horses testing positives for medical violations, so he could be the Doug O'Neill of this year's Derby!

6) Den's Legacy - Medaglia d'Oro by War Chant mare: New addition. The iron horse of this generation of lightly raced colts, having run 11 times. Most importantly, 6 of those races occurred after Nov. 1st and he has hit the board each and every time.  He has run behind Goldencents, Flashback and now Will Take Charge and Oxbow in the Rebel Stakes, in which I thought he ran great considering he raced down on the inside of a track favoring outside horses all weekend. As the competition increases he seems to keep improving and should relish the extra distance.  The Ford family of Arkansas appear to have a sure ticket to Louisville with this guy!

7) War Academy – Giant’s Causeway by an A.P. Indy mare (he’s a popular damsire this season).  I have tremendous respect for the Coolmore team behind this runner and Baffert can get them ready late in the season.  After running 4th in the 7 furlong San Vicente at Santa Anita, Baffert wheeled him back in a two turn allowance race a few days ago where he won for fun. Mike Smith is very high on this horse and he is one of the best jockeys still riding in my book, especially in money races. He will also need a top 3 finish wherever he runs in his final prep to sneak into the Derby field. I hope after Super Ninety Nine's flop in the Rebel I can see him first hand for the Arkansas Derby.

8) Code West - Lemon Drop Kid by Saint Ballado mare: New addition. This Baffert charge is one nostril away from having enough points to make the KY Derby field and much more respect out of the Risen Star. I Since I have two other horses from that race in my top 10 list, I might as well add the one with the best stamina breeding for the Derby distance. Besides, I think Martin Garcia inherited the lead based on the slow fractions and he just tried to steal the race. When a horse gets passed and comes again late in the race, I want to bet that horse back and that is exactly how the stretch duel went down. His owners - Gary and Mary West - have supported our sport for many years and he would be a well-deserved Derby entry in my book.

9) Palace Malice – Curlin by a Royal Anthem mare. Many young sires make their mark with 3YOs in their first or second crop (i.e. Birdstone, Street Cry, Flower Alley). Ran a solid third in his 3YO debut, one spot ahead of Oxbow who flattered in the Rebel Stakes. I think he can fare a little better in the LA Derby after a trip over the surface and a touch more distance. Certainly a long-shot at this point, but I'll stick with him to see if he qualifies.

10) Frac Daddy – Scat Daddy by Skip Away mare:  Still no race since my original comments due to quarter crack and throat ulcer - it will all be riding in the Florida Derby. But I think that group is fairly weak with Shanghai Bobby, Orb and Itsmyluckyday all being overrated. Let's put it this way, if these horses come up big in the KY Derby, I'm toast with my tickets! His damsire Skip Away was as game as they came at 9-10 furlongs for two years and even defeated the great Cigar (while getting 5 pounds).

Off my list: Violence (injury), Zeewat (5th at Golden Gate prep), Always in a Tiz (regressed in Southwest Stakes).

2013 Derby countdown has arrived!

While most sports fans think of Super Bowl Sunday as THE event, to me it is merely an indication that the Kentucky Derby is just three short months away! Let's not forget a critical statistic in that Mr. Prospector sire lines have a huge advantage of success in The Derby. Furthermore, 7 of the last 12 Derby victors have been from first or second crop sires. I have two in this category on my list, Revolutionary and Palace Malice. Without further delay, here is my original Derby Top 10 list...

1) Verrazano  -  More Than Ready by Giant’s Causeway: Absolutely destroyed a Gulfstream allowance field while rolling off 12 second furlong split times more consistent than a Longines (1800's switch watchmaker).  He reminds me of Eskenderaya over that same track when I saw him in the Fountain of Youth.  Just two races under his belt and his maiden score was on his third birthday, so he could buck another historical trend with a Derby victory to join Apollo as the only Derby winner to never start as a two year-old.

2) Revolutionary – War Pass out of a G1 winning AP Indy mare. He was all heart in swooping from last to first in Aqueduct’s Withers Stakes this weekend over a track that typically rewards speed.  Cherokee Run sire line is known to be short on stamina, but it has produced some Yonaguska runners that have carried their speed up to the Classic distances (Musket Man). But his damside is loaded with stamina via Seattle Slew and a cross of Hoist The Flag, resulting in a low 3.00 dosage index (historic threshold says under 4.0 has the best chance).

3) Violence – Medaglia d’Oro out of a Gone West mare results in a scant 2.08 dosage.  Third dam is one of the best turf race mares of all time, Sky Beauty.  Has won on three different tracks (two dirt tracks) so he’s proven his versatility and should be a safe bet to make the Derby field. He is many people's top selection, but I like to follow the road less traveled (ode to Robert Frost).

4) Flashback – Tapit colt by a Mr. Greeley mare = SPEED. I have questions on his 10 furlong ability, but he does have some Pleasant Colony via second dam and a double dose of stamina laden sire, Nijinsky II.  Appears to have the most raw talent of any in this bunch, so we’ll see if he’s a true miler or able to carry his speed into the Classics like a War Emblem and Bodemeister - previous Baffert speedballs.

5) Always in a Tiz – Tiznow by Elusive Quality mare: Loved his late close in the short stretch of the one mile Smarty Jones at Oaklawn.  I’ve never really liked Tiznow colts on the Derby trail and until now that has served me well.  But I have a hunch on this guy and if he fights like his daddy down the stretch he could be a live longshot in coming races!

6) Palace Malice – Curlin by a Royal Anthem mare. Many young sires make their mark with 3YOs in their first or second crop (i.e. Birdstone, Street Cry, Flower Alley). Royal Anthem is generally knows as a turf sire but that also means distance.  As the incomparable Cigar proved, sometimes horses flop on their turf credentials yet go on to be special on traditional ground.

7) Frac Daddy – Scat Daddy by Skip Away mare:  Not sure why I like this one but just he seems to be one that could jump up and win a big race. His damsire Skip Away was as game as they came at 9-10 furlongs for two years and even defeated the great Cigar (while getting 5 pounds). Trainer McPeek is very high on him and his ugly quarter crack gash in his hind frog surely bothered him in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. I’ll give him one more “crack” at redeeming himself before I toss.

8) Oxbow – Awesome Again by Cee’s Tizzy mare.  Nearly identical breeding as Paynter last year who proved to have Grade I class.  Awesome Again may be one of the most underrated sires out there as he has quietly sired four Breeders’ Cup winners, the best being Horse of the Year Ghostzapper (but also runner-up, Game on Dude).  The breeding is why this guy is on my list, but we’ll see if he can pull D. Wayne Lukas back into Derby relevance (thanks to Brad Kelley and resurrected Calumet Farm).

9) War Academy – Giant’s Causeway by an A.P. Indy mare (he’s a popular damsire this season!).  I have tremendous respect for the Coolmore team behind this runner and Baffert can get them ready late in the season.  He’ll probably ship to Oaklawn for one of their spring preps.  Only one maiden score in one race to date but he has the potential to “pop” in February and burst onto the Derby scene.

10) Zeewat – Harlan’s Holiday by Distant View: The “other” son of Harlan’s Holiday (Juvenile champ Shanghai Bobby off my list) is taking care of the Northern CAL circuit as the distance increases.  Hall of Famer Jerry Hallendorfer has his charge 2 for 2 in route races and the breeding is better than you may know considering damsire is a son of Mr. P.

On the bubble: Goldencents and Dynamic Sky. My first update will occur after the next wave of preps.

Happy Racing!
E

I'll Have Another... Triple Crown

As a child of the eighties, I grew up amidst the longest drought on record between Triple Crown winners but never waned in my passion for thoroughbred racing. Thanks in large part to living within an hour's drive to historic Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas and having a father involved in a racing partnership with several horses to keep me interested.

Also being a pre-generation x'er, I grew up listening to bands such as Tesla, whose song "Signs" keeps coming to my mind in thinking about this Saturday's Belmont Stakes. (Although, I must point out that the song was originally cut in 1970 by Five Man Electrical Band and written by Les Emmerson, but I digress.)

Original lyrics follows..

Signs, signs, everywhere there's signs
Blocking up the scenery, breaking my mind
Do this, don't do that, can't you read the sign?

Oh but say now, "Mister, can't you read?
You got to have a shirt and tie to get a seat
You can't watch, no you can't eat
You ain't supposed to be here"
Why would I think this song applies to I'll Have Another and his attempt at racing immortality?
Consider these "signs"...

1) There have been 11 Triple Crown winners to date but also 11 horses have failed in their final attempt since Affirmed last completed the hat trick back in 1978.  So it was very fitting today when IHA drew post #11.

2) Just as our racing community was expecting a Triple Crown winner to be the salvation of a sport in such need of a hero after the drugs, declining soundness and welfare of the horse, and jurisdictional infighting over casinos, trainer Doug O'Neil was convicted of a repeat drug violation in 2010 from California the week prior to his horse's date with destiny. And after Rick Dutrow's numerous racing violations exposed prior to Big Brown's shocking DNF in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, many out there will be rooting against this horse come Saturday.  Casual observers may also assume this was a "fixed" horse, regardless of the extensive security and quarantine to ensure that no starters will be tampered with for 72 hours prior to the race.

3) In the "You ain't supposed to be here" category, the scant $11,000 IHA sold for as a yearling and the $35,000 he was flipped for ("pinhooked" in racing parlance) as a two year-old in training is supposed to get you a solid claimer or perhaps even an allowance caliber horse if you're lucky. In no circumstance should this amount lead to a Triple Crown winner who's syndicated value could easily reach $50 million.  Heck, even "the Slew" (TC winner in 1977) sold for more than that at $17,500 thirty-five years ago and he was known as one of the greatest bargains of all time. With inflation of the thoroughbred market, this amount would be closer to 100K in today's dollars, not 10% of that amount. Had haughty sire Bernardini produced such a foal to sweep the Triple Crown we would think it foreseeable as well as acceptable.  But for the winner's sire to be so far down the lineage (a great-grandson) of Mr. Prospector who only registered one Grade I victory in his racing career and have a girly name like Flower Alley?  Really... c'mon!!

4) Consider all the similarities between I'll Have Another and 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, Smarty Jones - who was also thought to be a shoe-in leading into the Test of Champions. Both horses descend from the Mr. Prospector male family and have a stalking style of running, suited nicely for the typical Belmont Stakes. Both were unbeaten in their three year-old campaign but still didn't get the respect they probably deserved heading into Kentucky (although Smarty did go off favored by post-time). Both had strong regional affiliations and support - with Smarty it was his cult following from Philly Park and Oaklawn Park and with IHA it's the west coast pride of team O'Neil/Reddam who are unabashed Californians. Both horses wrangled with high quality speedballs in the Derby-Preakness (Lion Heart and Bodemeister, respectively) who bowed out for the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes. Both had an old Derby foe who sat out the Preakness while waiting for them in the Belmont Stakes. For Smarty Jones that foe was Birdstone and with IHA it's both Dullahan and Union Rags (he and Birdstone both were precocious juveniles winning the Champagne Stakes). And the final yet perhaps most relevant similarity, both have jockeys who were untested in classic races but put in superb rides the first two legs heading into Big Sandy. I was present in Elmont, NY for Stewart Elliott's ride aboard Smarty and I still believe that he got the horse beat by moving too soon on that day. Within a few days we will know if the happy-go-lucky Mario Gutierrez will still be grinning and tearing up with relief or if those tears turn to sorrow.

5) Finally, how ironic is it that England's Queen Elizabeth (a huge thoroughbred racing fan and owner who attended the Epsom Derby just this weekend) is celebrating her 60 years under the "Crown" in the same week American racing has their most important moment in nearly 40 years?

"And the sign says, you gotta have a membership card to get inside."  That is exactly what the eleven preceding members of the Triple Crown fraternity are sorting out right about now. Will I'll Have Another hear his name announced as the white smoke billows out of Belmont Park's grandstand around 5:35 central time on Saturday or will the hopes and dreams for #12 go down in flames at the hooves of Dullahan or Union Rags?  It all depends on how you interpret the signs.